Assuming the Cabinet passes the withdrawal/expulsion plan on Sunday or Monday, and assuming that the NRP quits soon afterwards, three scenarios present themselves: Labor joins the government; new elections; Netanyahu replaces Sharon.
The Labor Party is divided over whether to join a Sharon-led government. Party leader Shimon Peres, as well as MKs Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and Chaim Ramon are in favor, while MKs Amram Mitzna, Avraham Burg and Ophir Pines have expressed opposition. Many in the Likud object to Labor's inclusion in the coalition, and will vote against it, thus that this option is unlikely, at least in the short term.
Prime Minister Sharon can also ask the Knesset to vote to dissolve itself, thus leading to new elections in three months' time. In such a case, it is possible that the Likud will break up into two parties, one of which Sharon might take with him to form a new secular-centrist party. However, most commentators assume that it is not likely that a majority of Knesset Members, many of whom are in their first term in office, will vote to give up their chairs.
A third possibility is that Sharon will be toppled in a no-confidence motion, thus forcing his resignation. This can only occur if 61 MKs of the religious and/or right-wing parties decide to support Netanyahu to take his place.
The Labor Party is divided over whether to join a Sharon-led government. Party leader Shimon Peres, as well as MKs Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and Chaim Ramon are in favor, while MKs Amram Mitzna, Avraham Burg and Ophir Pines have expressed opposition. Many in the Likud object to Labor's inclusion in the coalition, and will vote against it, thus that this option is unlikely, at least in the short term.
Prime Minister Sharon can also ask the Knesset to vote to dissolve itself, thus leading to new elections in three months' time. In such a case, it is possible that the Likud will break up into two parties, one of which Sharon might take with him to form a new secular-centrist party. However, most commentators assume that it is not likely that a majority of Knesset Members, many of whom are in their first term in office, will vote to give up their chairs.
A third possibility is that Sharon will be toppled in a no-confidence motion, thus forcing his resignation. This can only occur if 61 MKs of the religious and/or right-wing parties decide to support Netanyahu to take his place.