Prime Minister Ariel Sharon today made his first appearance in several months before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee - and stayed for three and a half hours. Afterwards, he was widely quoted as having said that he is confident he will be able to pass his full withdrawal/expulsion plan in the Cabinet this coming Sunday, and that, "by the end of 2005, there will be no Jews in Gaza or the northern Shomron."
An aide said later, however, that what he really meant was that a "decision will be taken to remove the Jews from Gaza by the end of 2005."
Following Sharon's appearance today, Likud MK Yechiel Chazan said, "Sharon will be forced to disengage from his office. We will replace him with another leader from the Likud" - referring, of course, to Binyamin Netanyahu. Talk of this nature has led to rumors that Sharon is attempting to garner at least nine Likud MKs who will not support Netanyahu. This, because the religious and/or right-wing parties - Likud, Shas, National Union, National Religious Party, and United Torah Judaism - comprise 69 MKs; Netanyahu needs the support of 61 in order to be tapped to form Israel's next government. Some reports say that Sharon has 10-12 Likud MKs who say they will not support a "putsch" against the Prime Minister.
Maariv's political commentator Menachem Rahat told Arutz-7 today that there are "several options, but it is very difficult to say how this situation will pan out. I think that there will be a compromise [between Sharon and Netanyahu in the formulation of the proposal to be voted on at the next Cabinet meeting], because it will be beneficial for both sides - though not the residents [of Gush Katif and northern Shomron], of course. The three communities that Netanyahu is prepared to abandon are 'one in the hand,' which is better than 'three in the bush.'
"However, I don't see how Sharon will have his plan passed without his government falling apart. Whatever he does, he's stuck. A wise man might not have gotten himself into this situation in the first place, but in any event he's now trying to extricate himself... or possibly trying to weaken the government so that he can call new elections, in the belief that the current make-up of the Knesset does not reflect the will of the people. But it's of course a question whether he has the necessary support in the Knesset to do this...
"There are other questions regarding Sharon's behavior as well, such as his recent remarks about bringing the Jordanians to supervise security in Judea and Samaria. This, together with bringing the Egyptians back to Gaza, is truly shocking, as it simply erases everything that happened in the Six Day War. There's no question that if Menachem Begin heard this, he would be turning over in his grave, simply unable to understand this Sharonian logic."
Rahat said that it is unlikely that Sharon is hoping that NRP leader Effie Eitam will remain in the government, as "Eitam has said that the minute a concrete decision is made to remove Jewish communities, he is out. The only thing is that Sharon may be counting on the other minister in the NRP, Zevulun Orlev, who is not as anxious to quit. Orlev's logic, which is hard to refute, is that the minute the NRP leaves, Labor joins, which merely increases the damage that will be done."
Arutz-7's Ariel Kahane said, "Is it really so certain that Labor will enter? The disorganization and lack of leadership in Labor is even greater than that in the Likud!"
Rahat: "You are right, and this just shows how it is truly hard to find a solution to this mess, and we will just have to see what happens; it's truly hard to understand what he's doing. It's hard to understand Sharon from another angle, as well, and that is the question of how it is that a man who spent all his life building up the Jewish towns in Judea, Samaria and Gaza now turns his back on these people... He has received advice to let the whole issue slide, and to start dealing with other issues such as social and economic matters - but he doesn't want to hear this, and is going for broke."
Rahat noted two other much-touted options, but that both of them appear unlikely: "Either Sharon resigns, leaving the President to choose the MK whom he thinks will have the best chance of forming a government - namely Netanyahu. However, Sharon will not want to hand the government over to Netanyahu so easily, and so he could instead go to the Knesset and ask it to dissolve itself and thus bring about new elections. But it is also not likely that many of these new MKs, who spent so much time and effort getting elected, will agree to go to new elections merely to save Sharon. So this leaves us back where we started: confused, and we'll just have to wait it out."
An aide said later, however, that what he really meant was that a "decision will be taken to remove the Jews from Gaza by the end of 2005."
Following Sharon's appearance today, Likud MK Yechiel Chazan said, "Sharon will be forced to disengage from his office. We will replace him with another leader from the Likud" - referring, of course, to Binyamin Netanyahu. Talk of this nature has led to rumors that Sharon is attempting to garner at least nine Likud MKs who will not support Netanyahu. This, because the religious and/or right-wing parties - Likud, Shas, National Union, National Religious Party, and United Torah Judaism - comprise 69 MKs; Netanyahu needs the support of 61 in order to be tapped to form Israel's next government. Some reports say that Sharon has 10-12 Likud MKs who say they will not support a "putsch" against the Prime Minister.
Maariv's political commentator Menachem Rahat told Arutz-7 today that there are "several options, but it is very difficult to say how this situation will pan out. I think that there will be a compromise [between Sharon and Netanyahu in the formulation of the proposal to be voted on at the next Cabinet meeting], because it will be beneficial for both sides - though not the residents [of Gush Katif and northern Shomron], of course. The three communities that Netanyahu is prepared to abandon are 'one in the hand,' which is better than 'three in the bush.'
"However, I don't see how Sharon will have his plan passed without his government falling apart. Whatever he does, he's stuck. A wise man might not have gotten himself into this situation in the first place, but in any event he's now trying to extricate himself... or possibly trying to weaken the government so that he can call new elections, in the belief that the current make-up of the Knesset does not reflect the will of the people. But it's of course a question whether he has the necessary support in the Knesset to do this...
"There are other questions regarding Sharon's behavior as well, such as his recent remarks about bringing the Jordanians to supervise security in Judea and Samaria. This, together with bringing the Egyptians back to Gaza, is truly shocking, as it simply erases everything that happened in the Six Day War. There's no question that if Menachem Begin heard this, he would be turning over in his grave, simply unable to understand this Sharonian logic."
Rahat said that it is unlikely that Sharon is hoping that NRP leader Effie Eitam will remain in the government, as "Eitam has said that the minute a concrete decision is made to remove Jewish communities, he is out. The only thing is that Sharon may be counting on the other minister in the NRP, Zevulun Orlev, who is not as anxious to quit. Orlev's logic, which is hard to refute, is that the minute the NRP leaves, Labor joins, which merely increases the damage that will be done."
Arutz-7's Ariel Kahane said, "Is it really so certain that Labor will enter? The disorganization and lack of leadership in Labor is even greater than that in the Likud!"
Rahat: "You are right, and this just shows how it is truly hard to find a solution to this mess, and we will just have to see what happens; it's truly hard to understand what he's doing. It's hard to understand Sharon from another angle, as well, and that is the question of how it is that a man who spent all his life building up the Jewish towns in Judea, Samaria and Gaza now turns his back on these people... He has received advice to let the whole issue slide, and to start dealing with other issues such as social and economic matters - but he doesn't want to hear this, and is going for broke."
Rahat noted two other much-touted options, but that both of them appear unlikely: "Either Sharon resigns, leaving the President to choose the MK whom he thinks will have the best chance of forming a government - namely Netanyahu. However, Sharon will not want to hand the government over to Netanyahu so easily, and so he could instead go to the Knesset and ask it to dissolve itself and thus bring about new elections. But it is also not likely that many of these new MKs, who spent so much time and effort getting elected, will agree to go to new elections merely to save Sharon. So this leaves us back where we started: confused, and we'll just have to wait it out."