With only ten days left before the Likud referendum, opponents of the unilateral Gaza withdrawal/evacuation/expulsion plan say they are gaining momentum. Latest polls show that only 4% separate those who support the plan from those who oppose it.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has proposed a unilateral disengagement from Gaza, under which Israel is to withdraw its forces and evacuate its 8,000 residents by the end of 2005. This is to be done with no coordination with the Palestinian Authority, and therefore involves no reciprocal commitments on its part. The nearly 200,000 card-carrying members of the Likud will vote in a non-binding referendum on the plan on May 2.
The Prime Minister originally said he would abide by the referendum's results - but today he changed his tune. Speaking in the Knesset today, Sharon said that the referendum has no legal standing, but rather "public/moral standing." The Prime Minister said he wished to emphasize that the two bodies that have the authority to approve and authorize the plan are only the Cabinet and Knesset.
Survey results published in Haaretz today show that 44% of surveyed Likud members support the plan, while 40% oppose. Surprisingly, however, among those who are sure to vote the gap is slightly larger - 47% to 40%. Just over two-thirds of the respondents said they are sure to vote.
A Voice of Israel radio shows the same trend, although the numbers are different. A gap of 20% in favor of those who support has now dropped to 12%, according to Voice of Israel pollsters.
Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz of the Likud, one of the leaders of the campaign to oppose the plan, said today that the enlistment of senior Likud ministers such as Netanyahu, Livnat and Shalom in the Sharon camp has not significantly helped the pro-expulsion cause. "With all due respect," Katz said this morning, "each of those ministers who changed their position - or rather, changed their vote - has one vote, and no more. I believe that the only one whose personality can have an affect is Prime Minister Sharon himself. Anyone else in the Likud who would have pushed a program that is so diametrically opposed to the party platform would have suffered a 90% defeat and more. Our goal, therefore, is to convince Likud members to support the original positions of Ariel Sharon."
Katz said that the anti-evacuation trend can be explained as follows: "As time passes, the Likud members are being exposed more and more to the facts and to the practical significance of the plan, from both a security and humane point of view regarding the Gush Katif residents who are visiting their homes. All in all, the Likudniks like the settlers."
Asked if Sharon would be able to continue to serve as Prime Minister if the plan is defeated, Katz said he sees no reason why Sharon should resign: "He has asked for the opinion of the Likud members, and has said that he would abide by their decision. If his plan is defeated, he will accept their choice."
Interestingly, Eyal Arad, campaign chief for Sharon in favor of the plan, took a different approach. Speaking with Army Radio today, Arad did not say outright that Sharon would resign if the plan is rejected, but rather warned of a "scarier" picture than presented by Minister Katz: "There is no doubt that there will be a major shock to the political establishment if the disengagement is rebuffed."
Arad implied that the Yesha Council is paying people to visit the homes of Likud members - a charge that the Council promptly dismissed out of hand: "The volunteers are giving hours and days of their time without getting paid a cent." It is known that in several cases the volunteers have been asked to help pay for the buses that bring them to the Likudniks' homes.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has proposed a unilateral disengagement from Gaza, under which Israel is to withdraw its forces and evacuate its 8,000 residents by the end of 2005. This is to be done with no coordination with the Palestinian Authority, and therefore involves no reciprocal commitments on its part. The nearly 200,000 card-carrying members of the Likud will vote in a non-binding referendum on the plan on May 2.
The Prime Minister originally said he would abide by the referendum's results - but today he changed his tune. Speaking in the Knesset today, Sharon said that the referendum has no legal standing, but rather "public/moral standing." The Prime Minister said he wished to emphasize that the two bodies that have the authority to approve and authorize the plan are only the Cabinet and Knesset.
Survey results published in Haaretz today show that 44% of surveyed Likud members support the plan, while 40% oppose. Surprisingly, however, among those who are sure to vote the gap is slightly larger - 47% to 40%. Just over two-thirds of the respondents said they are sure to vote.
A Voice of Israel radio shows the same trend, although the numbers are different. A gap of 20% in favor of those who support has now dropped to 12%, according to Voice of Israel pollsters.
Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz of the Likud, one of the leaders of the campaign to oppose the plan, said today that the enlistment of senior Likud ministers such as Netanyahu, Livnat and Shalom in the Sharon camp has not significantly helped the pro-expulsion cause. "With all due respect," Katz said this morning, "each of those ministers who changed their position - or rather, changed their vote - has one vote, and no more. I believe that the only one whose personality can have an affect is Prime Minister Sharon himself. Anyone else in the Likud who would have pushed a program that is so diametrically opposed to the party platform would have suffered a 90% defeat and more. Our goal, therefore, is to convince Likud members to support the original positions of Ariel Sharon."
Katz said that the anti-evacuation trend can be explained as follows: "As time passes, the Likud members are being exposed more and more to the facts and to the practical significance of the plan, from both a security and humane point of view regarding the Gush Katif residents who are visiting their homes. All in all, the Likudniks like the settlers."
Asked if Sharon would be able to continue to serve as Prime Minister if the plan is defeated, Katz said he sees no reason why Sharon should resign: "He has asked for the opinion of the Likud members, and has said that he would abide by their decision. If his plan is defeated, he will accept their choice."
Interestingly, Eyal Arad, campaign chief for Sharon in favor of the plan, took a different approach. Speaking with Army Radio today, Arad did not say outright that Sharon would resign if the plan is rejected, but rather warned of a "scarier" picture than presented by Minister Katz: "There is no doubt that there will be a major shock to the political establishment if the disengagement is rebuffed."
Arad implied that the Yesha Council is paying people to visit the homes of Likud members - a charge that the Council promptly dismissed out of hand: "The volunteers are giving hours and days of their time without getting paid a cent." It is known that in several cases the volunteers have been asked to help pay for the buses that bring them to the Likudniks' homes.