Tensions amidst the Israeli delegation in Washington are high, in anticipation of the letter that U.S. President George Bush will supply to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon this evening. The negotiations over the precise contents continue even at this very hour, as the American and Israeli teams seek a formulation that will not anger the Arabs, endanger Bush's electoral chances, or leave Sharon high and dry in his quest for popular support from his Likud party in the upcoming referendum. It is currently assumed that the letter will state that the U.S. "assumes" that Arab refugees from 1948 will "return" to areas under Palestinian Authority control - as opposed to pre-1967 Israel - and that the U.S. further "assumes" that the Green Line will not mark the final border, in accordance with "demographic changes" - i.e., the Jewish settlements - that have taken place. However, the letter will say nothing about the "settlement blocs" that Sharon wishes to include.
The question that remains to be answered, after the letter is finally publicized, is how it will affect the Likud ministers and voting public. Will Netanyahu and others accept it as having fulfilled their minimum conditions enabling them to approve the disengagement plan, or will they see the letter as mere verbiage without sufficient guarantees that the unilateral withdrawal will not merely lead to more terrorism and international pressure? And how will the Likud membership react in the upcoming referendum on the withdrawal plan?
Dr. Ita Bick, a Political Science lecturer in the Judea and Samaria College in Ariel and an expert on American-Israeli relations, told Arutz-7 today that the purpose of the letter is "to strengthen Sharon's standing in the Israeli public. It does not reflect any great change in American policy over the years. It could be that today's timing, as well as the clear expression of support for little changes in the borders, will strengthen Sharon's standing. But this is not really new; the U.S. said in Camp David in 1999 that it would recognize such changes..." Asked if she thinks, in diplomatic terms, that such a letter is of equal value to the withdrawal that Sharon wishes to execute, Dr. Bick responded, "Actually, no. I don't think that a vague letter that somewhat satisfies all the sides, but does not even obligate the Palestinians, is of sufficient value for us to withdraw from Gaza."
The question that remains to be answered, after the letter is finally publicized, is how it will affect the Likud ministers and voting public. Will Netanyahu and others accept it as having fulfilled their minimum conditions enabling them to approve the disengagement plan, or will they see the letter as mere verbiage without sufficient guarantees that the unilateral withdrawal will not merely lead to more terrorism and international pressure? And how will the Likud membership react in the upcoming referendum on the withdrawal plan?
Dr. Ita Bick, a Political Science lecturer in the Judea and Samaria College in Ariel and an expert on American-Israeli relations, told Arutz-7 today that the purpose of the letter is "to strengthen Sharon's standing in the Israeli public. It does not reflect any great change in American policy over the years. It could be that today's timing, as well as the clear expression of support for little changes in the borders, will strengthen Sharon's standing. But this is not really new; the U.S. said in Camp David in 1999 that it would recognize such changes..." Asked if she thinks, in diplomatic terms, that such a letter is of equal value to the withdrawal that Sharon wishes to execute, Dr. Bick responded, "Actually, no. I don't think that a vague letter that somewhat satisfies all the sides, but does not even obligate the Palestinians, is of sufficient value for us to withdraw from Gaza."