A special i24NEWS report is raising questions about the reliability of Israeli opinion polls and the influence of television channels on public discourse, following election predictions that dramatically underestimated Likud's eventual performance.
Polls that predicted Likud would collapse to just 17-18 Knesset seats failed to match the actual election results, prompting renewed scrutiny of polling institutes and the way survey findings are presented to the public.
The report examines not only the accuracy of election forecasts but also the broader influence of polling data on public debate in Israel. Among the issues addressed are public attitudes toward establishing a state commission of inquiry, the judicial reform and hostage-release agreements.
A central question raised in the report concerns how the wording of survey questions can influence the results. Rather than simply reflecting public opinion, polls may present a distorted picture depending on how questions are formulated and which possible answers are offered to respondents.
Tzuriel Sharon, CEO of the Direct Polls institute and an i24NEWS pollster, commented "In polls, it matters very, very much how you formulate the question and how you present it to the public."
He pointed to surveys concerning hostage-release agreements as an example of how seemingly similar questions can produce substantially different results.
Sharon explained that there is a fundamental difference between asking Israelis whether they want the hostages returned home and asking what price they would be willing to pay as part of an agreement.
"On the question of the hostages, we saw this. When Israelis were asked, 'Do you want the hostages home?' 90% would answer yes. But the question of the price was something that wasn't presented," he said.