The vote count in Israel’s 26th Knesset elections continues, and political analyst Amit Segal published five observations Thursday morning about the projected distribution of seats, the impact of double-envelope ballots, and the options for forming the next government.
According to the latest official results, the political blocs remain without a clear majority, leaving the next government’s composition uncertain.
One of Segal’s key assessments concerns the battle for the final seats, particularly Shas’s position. “Shas is indeed on track to lose a seat to Likud," Segal wrote.
If his assessment proves correct, Shas will lose one seat to Likud, shifting the balance between the two parties without necessarily changing the overall strength of their political bloc.
Segal also addressed the impact of surplus-vote agreements and the Bader-Ofer method, which is used to distribute seats among parties that pass the electoral threshold.
“Surplus-vote agreements and the Bader-Ofer law can be misleading. In these elections, the right-wing bloc actually has a two-to-three-seat advantage in the distribution," he wrote.
Another point raised by Segal concerns the role of the opposition leader if a unity government is formed, and the balance of power between Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party and the Joint List.
“Bennett and Lapid currently have one more seat than the Joint List. This is significant if a unity government is formed, because Bennett would serve as opposition leader and receive security briefings, rather than Yousef Jabareen," Segal wrote.
Despite expectations of changes in the distribution of seats, Segal believes the impact of double-envelope ballots will be relatively limited.
“Since many people began declaring themselves disabled so they could vote wherever they wanted, the proportion of soldiers’ votes has declined. Those expecting dramatic shifts are likely to be disappointed," he wrote.
Segal’s central political assessment concerns the possibility of forming a government despite neither bloc having a clear majority.
“The change bloc and Ra’am will probably have more seats than the Netanyahu bloc. They will still need the Joint List to abstain in order to form a minority government. This is the only possible scenario for such a temporary government, and even that is a fairly remote prospect," he wrote.
The Joint List has already indicated that it is prepared to cooperate politically to end Netanyahu’s rule and establish an alternative government.