A new study by Col. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni and Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Winner warns that Israel can no longer consider its eastern border a quiet front and must prepare for the possibility of a large-scale attack from Jordan.
The researchers say a combination of Jordan's internal challenges, Iranian efforts to expand their presence in the region, and growing weapons and drug smuggling requires Israel to reassess its security strategy along the eastern frontier.
They warn that Israel must prepare for a scenario resembling the October 7 massacre, in which terrorists or armed vehicles could attempt to infiltrate Israel through multiple points along the border and rapidly reach communities in the Jordan Valley and Route 90.
According to the study, such an attack could exploit existing gaps along the border. Without an effective barrier and sufficiently large rapid-response forces, Israel could face a mass-casualty incident on an unprecedented scale.
The researchers stress that Jordan remains an important strategic partner for Israel and that maintaining the stability of the Hashemite regime is a critical Israeli security interest.
At the same time, they caution that Israel cannot rely exclusively on security cooperation with Amman. Israel must develop independent capabilities that would allow it to respond if the Jordanian government were to weaken or lose control of parts of the border.
The study points to a number of internal challenges facing Jordan, including a prolonged economic crisis, high unemployment, water shortages, heavy national debt and a complex demographic makeup in which most of the population is of Palestinian origin.
The researchers also point to the growing influence of extremist elements, including the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist organizations, which they say are placing increased pressure on the Hashemite monarchy.
Siboni and Winner warn that Iran and its proxies are seeking to turn Jordan into another arena for activity against Israel.
The study highlights weapons and drug smuggling through the Syria-Jordan border, the use of drones to transport weapons, and the potential establishment of pro-Iranian militias near Israel's eastern border.
These developments, the researchers say, could transform what has traditionally been viewed as a relatively quiet frontier into an active arena of conflict.
The study calls on Israel to rapidly complete construction of the security barrier along the Jordanian border and strengthen the Eastern Division responsible for the sector.
The researchers also recommend expanding intelligence and surveillance capabilities, deploying systems capable of detecting and intercepting drones, and increasing the number of rapid-response forces available in the area.
They further stress the importance of strengthening the communities, farms and settlements in the Jordan Valley, describing them as an important component of the region's defensive capabilities.
On a diplomatic level, the researchers recommend continuing to strengthen ties with Jordan through cooperation in water, energy and economic affairs.
They also say that Israel should demand that Jordan take decisive action against weapons and drug smuggling and anti-Israel incitement.
The researchers conclude that Israel must continue to regard the stability of Jordan as a strategic interest while simultaneously preparing for the possibility that conditions in the kingdom could change rapidly.
"Let us not return to an event similar to October 7," Siboni and Winner write, warning that the seemingly quiet eastern front could become Israel's next major security challenge.