The Gulf states and Jordan are finding themselves targeted by Iran and its proxies. We discussed their approach toward Iran in recent days with Dr. Michal Yaari, an expert on the Arab world from Ben-Gurion University in the Negev.
“The Iranian attacks expose just how vulnerable Arab states are - not only the poorer countries, but also the wealthy Gulf states that have invested trillions of dollars in their militaries over the years in order to defend themselves. Yet, when put to the test, their armed forces have failed to do so effectively," Dr. Yaari says.
She adds: “These attacks also demonstrate the failure of the long-standing strategy adopted by Arab states. For years, almost all Arab countries pursued a policy of containment and appeasement toward Iran. Their underlying assumption was that if they did not provoke the neighborhood bully and did not give the Iranian regime reasons to destabilize the region, they would be able to preserve their stability and security. Since February, we have seen that this strategy has failed, and they are becoming the main victims of this never-ending war between the United States, Israel, and Iran."
According to Dr. Yaari, questions surrounding Iran’s decision to attack them rather than Israel are also occupying the minds of the Arab countries under attack. The prevailing feeling there is one of “a major betrayal."
She elaborates, noting that a country like the United Arab Emirates served as an economic lifeline for Iran during the sanctions period, despite the UAE’s concerns about Tehran. Nevertheless, the UAE helped Iran maintain economic survival during the height of that period, through the presence of more than 400,000 Iranian citizens on its territory and thousands of Iranian companies operating from there. But when the moment of truth arrived, “none of this helped on the day Iran launched an attack and decided to retaliate against them."
The same applies to Qatar and Oman, which worked in every possible way to prevent a US attack on Iran, yet found themselves drawn into the conflict. “The reason Iran gives for attacking Arab countries is that these are countries that allowed the United States to establish military bases on their soil and that, over the years, maintained military and other forms of cooperation with Washington. From Iran’s perspective, this is sufficient justification to attack them."
In contrast to the attacks on Arab countries, Iran is cautious about attacking Israel. “They do not want to open another front against Israel, because Israel will respond - unlike the Arab states, which do not have that capability."
Will this reality - the attacks and the sense of betrayal created by Iran among Arab states - lead to a different future? Dr. Yaari is highly skeptical, given the “deadlock" in which these countries find themselves.
“Arab states cannot rely on their own military capabilities, nor can they rely on mutual assistance from other Arab countries, because it is meaningless. They also cannot rely on the United States, which dislikes distant wars, or on Israel, which would not want to be dragged into another round of war with Iran if only Arab countries are attacked and not Israel. Therefore, they must rely on themselves. This means that the diplomatic path is the only option on the table if they do not want to enter a military confrontation in which they already know they are at a strategic disadvantage compared with Iran. All that remains is to appease Iran once again and resolve the crisis through dialogue and negotiations. The problem is that even dialogue and negotiations are limited options for them."
Arab states are learning about the limitations of diplomatic negotiations from the fact that discussions of a potential US-Iran agreement did not address Iran’s ballistic capabilities, its support for various proxies across the Middle East, or provide an in-depth solution to the nuclear issue. The agreement discussed between the United States and Iran offered only a partial response to the issue of the Strait of Hormuz - a passageway that was open to shipping before the outbreak of the war. Therefore, in the eyes of Arab states, the war initiated by the United States and Israel only worsened the situation.
Regarding the status of Arab countries as hostages in Iran’s hands, Dr. Yaari quotes the Qatari emir, who summarized the situation with the understanding that Iran will continue to be his country’s neighbor.
“You cannot change geography. American interests are focused on Americans. There is currently a president who is willing to do more for others, but he can be replaced, and based on the recent experience, there may no longer be American motivation to repeat such an operation."
“We must acknowledge that the military results of this war are very limited. There was talk of destroying the nuclear program and toppling the regime - ambitions that had little basis in reality. Therefore, Arab states are asking Israel and the United States: What did we gain from all of this? Didn’t you think about the damage that would be caused to us before embarking on this course of action? We are the ones left here to pay the price. This is a very difficult reality for Arab states."