As we mark two weeks since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Israel and Lebanon, and amid lingering concerns of a broader US-Iran escalation that could draw Hezbollah back into the fray, it is time to pause and ask difficult questions. Right now, we have more question marks than answers.
The primary question today is this:
Will the Lebanese state ever reach a point where its government is strong enough to defeat Hezbollah in a confrontation, and Hezbollah is weak enough to lose?
I use the word "lose" very deliberately, because Hezbollah, much like its Iranian patron, will never simply surrender.
This means we are looking at a long road ahead. Ultimately, this is a battle for hearts and minds. At the Alma Center, we continually monitor material demonstrating deep-rooted loyalty to the values of the Islamic Revolution and radical Shi'ite ideology, chief among them the culture of martyrdom.
While we occasionally hear claims from various researchers that the Shi'ite population in Lebanon is abandoning Hezbollah, we have yet to find solid, grounded evidence to support this. Since the day I founded Alma, I have been waiting for the moment I see a Lebanese mother throw rockets out of her home into the trash and declare she is done with Hezbollah. We are not there yet.
Can these entrenched values change? History shows us they can, we need only look at Japan or Germany after World War II. But the critical difference here is that the apparatus feeding these radical values remains intact. The 'oxygen pipeline' from the Islamic Republic of Iran is still flowing, and the Lebanese government is not doing nearly enough to cut the umbilical cord connecting Hezbollah to its resources, funding, and educational systems. Hezbollah’s schools and its entire 'state within a state' infrastructure continue to operate freely.
We see similar alarming ideological trends across the border in Syria. Just last week, we highlighted the troubling development of HTS being brought under the umbrella of the Syrian Ministry of Education. It forces us to ask where Syria will be ideologically in ten years, even before factoring in weapons and military build-up.
We track these developments daily at Alma, examining how ideology and Dahwa (proselytising mixed with social services - ) are used to buy population support, create dependency, and ultimately serve military objectives.
The bottom line is that the only way to replace these lingering question marks with a definitive exclamation point is for the Lebanese government to take brave, overt, and public steps. This is the only way to begin building any semblance of trust among Israelis who have lived under Hezbollah's fire for the past several years.
The immediate test case for this is the implementation of the MOU in the designated pilot zones. While Alma has published extensive lists of the systemic steps the Lebanese government must take, the most basic, fundamental test is the complete disarmament of Hezbollah in these specific pilot areas. We need to see them cleared of weapons and, crucially, we need to see that terrorist elements are actively prevented from returning. That is the necessary starting point for any real change.
Sarit Zehavi
Your eyes and ears on the northern border,
Alma Research and Education Center
The Strikes on Hezbollah Infrastructure Through the Lens of the “Human Shield"
