One common perception about elections is that they are decided by voter movement-people switching from one party to another or from one political bloc to another.
That perception is understandable because we are constantly bombarded with opinion polls showing shifts in voter preferences, while parties compete to persuade voters to support them instead of their rivals. Indeed, much of every campaign is devoted to retaining existing supporters while attracting new ones.
In reality, however, elections and voting patterns are far more complex. For example, voters moving between parties within the same political bloc is often of little or no consequence compared to voters crossing from one bloc to another. It makes almost no difference whether Yair Golan wins eight seats and Gadi Eisenkot wins 15, or whether Golan wins 10 and Eisenkot 13. Likewise, it has little impact whether Shas wins nine seats and United Torah Judaism seven, or whether both parties win eight seats each.
By contrast, when the blocs are evenly matched, the transfer of just one or two Knesset seats from one bloc to the other can determine the outcome of the election.
Now let us focus on one of the key factors in elections that does not always receive the attention it deserves: voter turnout.
It is important to note that voter turnout in Israel is measured against the entire voter registry-that is, all registered eligible voters. This voter roll is far from realistic, as it includes hundreds of thousands of people who no longer live in Israel permanently. According to estimates by the Central Bureau of Statistics, roughly 10-11 percent of registered voters fall into this category. As a result, when official figures report, for example, a 70 percent turnout, the actual participation rate among residents is much closer to 80 percent.
Consider the 2021 Israeli election, in which the national camp lost. Overall turnout declined by about four percentage points, from 71.5 percent in 2020 to 67.4 percent in 2021. But that overall figure conceals a much more dramatic story: turnout changed very differently among supporters of different parties.
To examine this more closely, every party stronghold was analyzed-that is, every polling station where a party received an outright majority of more than 50 percent of the vote. The findings show that each party contributed differently to the nationwide decline in turnout.
Supporters of the Joint List recorded the sharpest drop. Angered by the alliance's breakup, turnout in their strongholds fell by nearly 22 percentage points, from 66 percent to just 44 percent.
In Likud strongholds, turnout declined by 4.6 percentage points, from 66.3 percent to 61.7 percent. Even in United Torah Judaism strongholds, turnout fell by 3.2 percentage points, from 78.9 percent to 75.7 percent.
By contrast, turnout in Blue and White strongholds declined by only 1.3 percentage points, from 72.1 percent to 70.8 percent. In Labor-Meretz strongholds, turnout remained stable and even increased slightly.
This is a clear example of how elections can be decided even when voters do not change their political preferences at all. Simply showing up-or choosing not to show up-at the polling station can determine the result. Particularly striking is the gap between roughly 71 percent turnout in Blue and White strongholds and only about 62 percent in Likud strongholds.
Political parties must understand that voter dissatisfaction is not necessarily expressed by switching allegiance to another party. It is enough for supporters to decide not to vote because they feel that "there's no one worth voting for this time," or as a form of protest against the party they usually support.
Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties are among those with the most loyal voter bases, whose supporters tend to vote the same way election after election. Yet those same voters have already shown in the past that they can simply stay home. It is worth remembering that only a small percentage choosing not to vote can be enough to decide the election.
The article is reprinted courtesy of the weekly magazine 'Matzav HaRuach.'