A new Knesset mandates poll conducted for i24NEWS by the Direct Polls Institute points to a significant weakening of Likud and the broader right-wing bloc.
According to the survey, Likud would win 28 seats, Yashar 18, Beyachad 12, The Democrats 11, Shas 9, Otzma Yehudit 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, United Torah Judaism 8, the Joint List with Balad 7, Ra’am 5, and Religious Zionism 4 seats. Blue and White, The Reservists Party, and the Economic Party would all fail to cross the electoral threshold.
By bloc, the coalition would receive 58 seats, while the opposition and Arab parties together would reach 62 seats.
According to Direct Polls CEO Tzuriel Sharon, the figures are unusual and indicate a shift in momentum after a prolonged period of relative stability within the national camp.
“The current Direct Polls survey is not just another minor fluctuation on the graph," Sharon said. “It is a recalculation event for the national camp. After a long period of relative stability, we are identifying a real upheaval. Likud has dropped into the 20s, falling to 28 seats, and the entire right-wing bloc has retreated to 58 seats-the lowest figure we have seen in recent years."
Sharon attributes the shift to what he calls the “Trump effect" and the outcome of Operation Roaring Lion.
“The greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment: the expectations trap of Operation Roaring Lion is costing Netanyahu dearly," he said. “In politics, the gap between expectations and reality is where parties bleed mandates. The operation was presented to the public as a move that would reshape the Middle East. But President Trump’s surprise agreement with Iran caught the right unprepared, and the feeling on the street is one of colossal missed opportunity."
He added that only 10% of coalition voters define the current situation as a victory.
“Two-thirds of the right (62%) see the outcome as a ‘partial achievement,’ while a quarter of right-wing voters define it as a complete failure. The meaning is that the government’s narrative has collapsed within its own base. The Israeli right, which expects decisive victories, is struggling to accept a compromise that came specifically from its strategic anchor in Washington."
According to Sharon, most of the mandates lost by Likud are not moving to the opposition.
“Where are the missing mandates going? They are not crossing over to the opposition. Gadi Eisenkot is strengthening and rising to 18 seats, widening his lead over the Bennett-Lapid camp, which is now only one seat ahead of Yair Golan. But most disappointed right-wing voters have simply climbed onto the fence. This is a passive revolt. Traditional right-wing voters are telling us: ‘We are not going to vote for center-left parties, but we are also not going to leave home for the current leadership.’ For Likud, this is a dangerous internal circulation problem: those same people may stay home on election day."
Sharon identified three main trends emerging from the survey.
The first is a rise in undecided voters and right-wing voters who are unsure whether they will vote at all.
“The despair graph within the base is reaching a peak. The right’s problem right now is not persuasion-it is motivation. Those who believe are not afraid, and those who are discouraged do not vote."
The second trend is erosion within the haredi public.
“For the first time, we are seeing a significant number of haredi voters saying they will not vote. This likely reflects disappointment over the lack of progress on the military draft issue and the arrests of yeshiva students. The well-oiled haredi turnout machine-which usually produces the highest voting rates in the bloc-is showing worrying signs of wear."
The third trend is the growing number of small right-wing parties that remain below the electoral threshold.
“Several niche right-wing parties are currently operating below the threshold. None is close to entering the Knesset, but together they are wasting several valuable mandates for the bloc. This lack of electoral discipline is a historic recipe for losing power."
In conclusion, Sharon wrote: “The Israeli public, including the right, is experiencing a catalytic crisis of confidence regarding the results of the diplomatic-military campaign. Netanyahu and Likud have spent years building their brand around being in a different league in international relations and in standing up to Iran. The moment Trump signed an agreement over Netanyahu’s head, that crack opened directly inside Likud’s mandate count. To return from 58 seats to the 61-seat majority line, the right will need to redefine what ‘victory’ means-and quickly."