Gary Willig is a veteran Arutz Sheva staff member.
The US and Israel accomplished so much in the six-week aerial war against Iran, decimating the Islamic Republic’s leadership, destroying its navy, and leaving its military a shell of its former self. And yet, since the ceasefire was declared in April, Iran has been the party in control, dictating terms, attacking at will, and humiliating the US day after day.
On paper, the US has all the leverage in the world and Iran has no leverage. Already collapsing before the war, Iran’s economy is losing half a billion dollars a day thanks to the US blockade. The IRGC, the real power in Iran, is struggling to pay its own members. Combined with its military losses, Iran should be begging on its knees. Instead, it acting like it is the superpower and America is nation with no economy or military, and the US is playing along with this delusion.
The decisive leadership of the administration which took out Qassem Soleimani, bombed Iran’s nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer, and crushed Iran’s military in Operation Epic Fury has been replaced by the same indecisiveness that plagued the Biden Administration.
The move to force Israel to stop responding to Hezbollah’s attacks on its civilians in order to placate Iran is more reminiscent of Joe Biden’s attempts to save Hamas during the October 7 War in order to placate the Democrats’ antisemitic base than the Trump Administration we have come to know.
Since the ceasefire began, Iran has attacked US forces, attacked the UAE, attacked Kuwait, and continued to attack civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. America’s response has been to threaten and back down, announce an operation to protect civilian ships only to abruptly cancel it 2 days later, and to talk even when there’s no one sitting across the table.
Trump’s strength and his genius in foreign policy came from the fact that he did not bluff when it came to America’s security, which Iran found out when claimed it had enough enriched uranium to build 11 nuclear bombs before Epic Fury was launched.
That has now changed, as Iran has called Trump’s bluff repeatedly during this ceasefire, and each time, the US signals that it has no stomach to confront Iran again. The US is so reluctant to resume military action that Iran, with no leverage, can force the superpower to act on its behalf in Lebanon, to Israel's detriment, just by threatening not to talk.
At this point, it is obvious that Iran will never agree to a deal to give up its dreams of nuclear armageddon without the sort of pressure the US refuses to enforce, and that the threat of resumed military action has long since passed its expiration date as a legitimate threat. Without a significant change in approach, the only possible deal at this point is a repeat of a clone of the disastrous Obama nuclear deal.
To his credit, Trump has so far rejected that deal, the only deal Iran has offered, and has done so consistently. But that raises the question of why this farce of a negotiation continues when Iran has shown it will never meet the minimum requirements for a worthwhile agreement, when it continues to act violently, and when it acts to strengthen itself militarily by digging out the ballistic missile launchers that were buried underground during the war.
Why does Iran get to dictate whether Hezbollah survives in Lebanon just so negotiations that do nothing but serve Iran’s interests get extended?
It is possible that Trump’s goal is to wait for the economic damage of the blockade to do its work in Iran, but even if that is the case, why project such weakness and why save Hezbollah on Iran’s behalf? Why treat these negotiations as so important and as too big to fail, the same mistake Barack Obama made 11 years ago? Why not do something to speed up the process of Iran’s collapse or show that the US is the superpower? Why waste so much political capital on a project that only projects weakness for so long?
Why is the side whose leaders and military were wiped out the side that is demanding unconditional surrender, and the superpower the only side that is surrendering anything? There is no need to keep such a goal a secret, and a willingness to walk away from these talks would convey the sense of strength that has disappeared since the moment Project Freedom was canceled. The only thing these talks accomplish is to create the possibility that the economic war against Iran could collapse and push the problem of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and threats against all of its neighbors down the road.
It creates the very real possibility that Iran is correctly calling America’s bluff.
Israel has a long history of winning wars and then not being allowed to finish them decisively, forfeiting its gains during the ensuing ceasefires forced upon it by international pressure. This happened because the world always wanted to reward the aggressors for their failed efforts to wipe out the Jewish people rather than treat attacks on Israel as wrong, and because even Israel’s friends would never let Israel truly defeat those who seek to commit genocide against it.
The US is the most powerful nation in world history. It should never lose a ceasefire after winning a war. But on its current trajectory, it is losing power every day this ceasefire continues.