The US and Iran have been at war for 47 years, since the Shiite Islamic Revolution forces, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, overthrew King Pahlavi in 1979 and established the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). Since then, Iran’s rallying cry has consistently called for “Death to America" and “Death to Israel." The IRI was founded on “twelver" ideology, which insists that chaos in the world will cause the resurrection of the hidden 12th Imam or Mahdi (messiah) who will return to the world to help the Muslims defeat all the infidels (Christians, Jews, Hindus, and others).
Although westerners might consider the IRI a death cult, the faithful believe the Mahdi will appear at the End of Times to rid the world of evil and injustice, establishing a just social order under Islam. Such radical death cult ideology is rejected by all Western democracies and other non-Islamic nations.
If America were to proceed with negotiations with IRI, it would have to insist on the following points:
1) Iran will no longer fund or train any proxies anywhere.
2) Iran will destroy its three terrorist organizations with their millions of operatives spanning physical terrorism, narco-terrorism, and cultural terrorism globally.
3) Iran must end propagating cultural terror by terminating all funding worldwide.
4) Iran must permanently close all missile and drone production.
5) Iran must destroy all its nuclear facilities and hand over all of the enriched uranium they possess.
6) Iran’s air force, air defense systems, and naval forces should be downgraded and limited.
7) Iran cannot maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz (Trump).
8) Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it’s Quds Force, and the Basij must be dispersed.
9) The remaining members of the Ayatollahs’ Regime should be put on Nuremburg-like trials in Tehran or in Qom.
10) Iran should no longer be identified as the Islamic Revolutionary Republic of Iran, but simply the Republic of Iran.
Since the likelihood of the IRI accepting such conditions is doubtful, we foresee three eventualities:
1) The US and Israel continue fighting the IRI for at least 30 more days, if necessary, thus facilitating the possibility of a Regime Change.
2) After these additional 30 days, America could declare victory and leave
Israel with the task of completing the War.
3) If after 30 more days of heavy bombing the IRI regime does not fall, America and Israel will patrol the skies and the surrounding seas to ensure no supplies get into the country, preventing its rearmament and re-building its offensive weapons capabilities.
Led by America and Israel, western democracies now find themselves on the cusp of victory. But, will we insist , as we did in WW2, on unconditional surrender? Or will we seek an early termination of the war, without Regime Change? No one knows. Alas, we worry the choice could be option 2 or 3.
The American and Israeli air forces just finished a very successful bombing campaign, hitting over 12,000 targets each, including the elimination of members of the regime, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), nuclear program facilities and scientists, petrochemical, steel, and other critical infrastructure, ports, bridges, and railways, among others. However, 3,500 targets were chosen by Trump for attack before the two-week pause was called, to allow for the first round of talks in Pakistan, which ended inconclusively.
Iran claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz, which the Trump Administration promptly reversed by sending two destroyers through the Strait, along with numerous underwater drones to eliminate the threat of mines, and the American Navy began blockading ships carrying Iranian oil. According to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), this move, if implemented, could cost Iran about $13 billion per month, which would destroy what remained of Iran’s economy within a few months.
Three days later, President Trump and the Iranians declared Hormuz is “open". A day later, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and its forces fired on two tankers in the Strait. Subsequently, the US Navy disabled an Iranian cargo ship and took over control of the ship and its contents. The American blockade of Iranian ports and ships continues.
Negotiations are subject to Iran giving in to US demands. Meanwhile, if Iran attacks either American warships or tankers going through the Straits, the American kinetic response would be disastrous for Iran. So, what might happen?
We foresee the following plausible scenarios:
1) Since Iran is incapable of negotiating seriously, America strengthens its hold over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian economy and government will implode within months, allowing for a genuine Regime Change.
2) The IRGC forces take over total control of Iran by killing as many citizens as they can. However, they soon will run out of money.
3) Some of the 31 provinces could have successful uprisings, particularly among the 50% of the population that is not Persian and represent a wide variety of minorities.
4) A new transitional government led by the former Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, with or without a coalition of exiled opposition groups, could take the lead temporarily, to prepare a new constitutional monarchy or constitutional republic.
5) Chaos prevails as the 47-year failed experiment of the radical Islamist regime comes to a violent end. The IRI’s new regime refused America’s agreement, attacked tankers in Hormuz, and renewed bombing of Israel and America’s Arab Gulf allies. Iran orders the Houthis to resume missile attacks on Israel and the Gulf states, and/or ships seeking entry to the Suez Canal, and activates all its affiliated Iraqi Shia militia to increase mayhem in the Middle East, as well as its cells throughout the world. The US and Israel resume bombarding and eliminating Iranian targets. The IRI regime collapses within a month.
6) A politically expedient deal, one that meets America’s conditions but keeps the current IRGC-led government in power, is signed. But since enforcement mechanisms are lacking, Iran immediately begins cheating, and rebuilding its power. Both sides declare “victory", but the final showdown is pushed to another day.
All of the above could happen. We hope for options 1 and 4.
