A confidential CIA assessment presented to administration officials this week concluded that Iran could endure the current US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing significantly harsher economic conditions, the Washington Post reported citing multiple people familiar with the findings.
According to the report, the intelligence analysis also determined Iran continues to maintain substantial ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of US and Israeli strikes.
According to one US official cited in the report, Iran still possesses roughly 75 percent of its prewar mobile missile launchers and about 70 percent of its missile stockpiles. The official added that Iran has managed to restore access to most of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and complete the assembly of additional missiles that were near completion before the conflict began.
President Donald Trump presented a more optimistic assessment on Wednesday, stating that Iran’s missile arsenal had been “mostly decimated."
Four current and former US officials confirmed the general conclusions of the intelligence report to the Washington Post while speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the matter.
A senior US intelligence official emphasized the impact of the blockade in a statement, saying it was severely damaging Iran’s economy, cutting off trade and reducing government revenue. The official also said Iran’s military capabilities had been significantly weakened.
Trump and other administration officials have repeatedly described the campaign against Iran as a major military success, while continuing to press Tehran to halt uranium enrichment and meet additional US demands.
The report comes as the US continues enforcing its blockade on Iranian ports following the breakdown of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Iran’s economy has suffered under the combined pressure of war, sanctions and longstanding inflation. However, according to the CIA assessment, Tehran may be capable of surviving the blockade for between 90 and 120 days before more serious economic hardship emerges.
One person familiar with the report said Iran has been storing oil aboard tankers unable to unload because of the blockade while also reducing oil field output to preserve infrastructure.
US officials also believe Iran may attempt to ease economic pressure by transporting oil through overland routes in Central Asia.
The intelligence assessment further stated that Iran continues to maintain a significant missile and drone arsenal. Before the war, Iran was believed to possess approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones.
Officials said the timeline for Iran to resume substantial ballistic missile production has shortened.