A poll conducted by the Midgam Institution for Channel 12 found that if elections were held today, the Likud would win 25 Knesset seats, followed by Naftali Bennett's party with 21 seats.
The poll gives Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party 14 seats, Yair Golan's Democrats 10, Shas nine, Otzma Yehudit nine, Yisrael Beytenu eight, Yesh Atid seven, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) seven, Hadash-Ta'al five, and United Arab List five as well.
Not passing the electoral threshold are Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionists (2.7% of the vote), Yoaz Hendel's Reservists (1.3%), Benny Gantz's Blue and White (0.8%), and Sami Abu Shahada's Balad.
The anti-Netanyahu parties receive 60 seats, while the current coalition parties garner 50.
In a scenario where the Arab parties Hadash, Ta'al, United Arab Party, and Balad run under a joint list, they would win 12 seats. In such a situation, the Likud would win 24 seats, Bennett 21, Eisenkot 14, Otzma Yehudit, Democrats, and Shas nine each, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu seven each, and Yesh Atid would receive six.
The poll also checked the option of Bennett and Eisenkot uniting to run under one list. Such a list would win 35 seats, towering over the Likud, which would still receive 25. The Democrats would win 10 seats, Shas nine, Otzma Yehudit nine, Yisrael Beytenu eight, Yesh Atid seven, UTJ seven, United Arab List five, and Hadash-Tal five.
In all scenarios, the opposition bloc achieves a majority, but not one that would allow it to form a government without relying on the Arab parties.
Another poll published by the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 paints a different picture entirely, one that favors the Likud and its coalition partners. According to this poll, the Likud would win 35 seats, Yashar 12, Shas 11, Arab parties 11, Bennett 10, Yisrael Beytenu nine, Otzma Yeudit Nine, Democrats and UTJ eight apiece, Yesh Atid four, and the Religious Zionists four as well.