How can the Strait of Hormuz be secured in a durable way once the fighting ends?
History suggests, to put it mildly, that relying solely on agreements with Tehran would be foolhardy.
Past arrangements have generally been followed by renewed tensions or violations.
In the absence of a dramatic regime change to one friendly to the West, a unilateral arrangement is required to ensure that Iran can never close this vital waterway again.
It must be an arrangement which restricts activity both on the waterway and in a limited coastal buffer zone.
A unilateral arrangement which relies on boots on the ground within thecoastal buffer zone would most definitely be a non-starter.
But boots on the ground would not be required for a no-tolerance approach which destroys any equipment in violation of restrictions immediately upon detection.
In an ideal world, this stringent arrangement could be achieved by a Chapter VII United Nations Security Council Resolution not vetoed by China or Russia.
We live in anything but an ideal world.
However, the workaround could be achieved, in the immediate aftermath of the war, with a unilateral declaration by the United States (with allies like Israel and GCC states) of a ceasefire or armistice imposing the security regime as a condition for halting operations.
The zone would be designated as a temporary "post-conflict stabilization measure" under customary law, similar to the Iraq no-fly zones (1991-2003), which were imposed by the U.S., UK, and France without explicit UNSC authorization but claimed as necessary to protect civilians and enforce prior resolutions (e.g., UNSC Res. 688 on humanitarian crises).
In addition, any redeployment of prohibited systems (e.g., a vehicle carrying missiles, drones or mines in the zone) would be treated a priori as evidence of an imminent "armed attack" under UN Charter Article 51, triggering anticipatory self-defense and justifying immediate standoff destruction upon detection.
We all hope to witness a durable viable regime change in Iran in the coming days.
It is crucial, however, to have solutions on the table which do not rely either on regime change or the consent of the current Iranian regime.
Dr. Aaron Lerner heads IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations.