The Islamist project has been defeated. Not merely set back, not merely checked - defeated. The promises it made to hundreds of millions of people have been exposed as fraudulent, its military ambitions crushed, and its political campaign in the West rendered impotent. What remains is not a war in doubt but a mop-up operation, and eventually, the work of winning the peace. The only question left is how long it takes those still fighting to recognize what everyone else already knows.
This defeat did not begin on October 7, 2023, nor did it end there. It began on September 11, 2001, when radical Islamic ideology declared open war on the modern world. By March of 2026, the verdict is no longer debatable. A quarter-century of evidence has rendered its judgment. The ideology that promised power and a return to civilizational dominance delivered instead untold suffering - endless wars, economic ruin, mass displacement, and failed states wherever it took hold.
To understand why the outcome is already decided, the conflict must be examined in two parts. The first is the kinetic war - the war of violence, terror, armies, rockets, and tunnels. The second is the political and ideological war, fought not in the field but in the capitals of the West, on university campuses, in media organizations, and in the streets. These wars overlap in purpose, but they must be analyzed separately to understand why the outcome is already decided.
The Kinetic War.
Begin with the war that is fought with weapons.
If figures such as Khomeini, Nasrallah, Assad, Sinwar, Deif, and the broader network that supported and celebrated them had known the full consequences of October 7, there is no question that they would not have launched it. What was designed to ignite the destruction of Israel accomplished something else entirely: it exposed the terminal weakness of the Islamist radical project for the entire world to see.
The pivot from Arab nationalism toward Islamic fundamentalism was sold as a path to restored greatness. The results have been catastrophic. From Gaza to Lebanon, from Syria to Yemen, from Iran to Iraq, wherever this ideology seized control, it hollowed out institutions, crushed dissent, sacrificed generations to endless conflict. The societies it touched are not stronger economically or militarily and are more intolerant than ever.
The only people who still believe in this project are those most trapped inside it - and those in the West who have adopted it as a tool to attack the civilization they themselves inhabit. Everyone else either knows the truth or will soon be forced to confront it. The kinetic war is over. What remains is the cleanup.
The Political And Ideological War
The second front has been louder, more theatrical, and ultimately no more successful. To the average person living through it , it felt very affective, but with the passage of time the results speak louder than words.
The campaign waged in Western capitals sought to delegitimize Israel, excuse terrorism, rehabilitate the worst regimes on earth under the banner of resistance and justice, and use sustained political pressure to force Israel into defeat and the United States into retreat. Its goal was not persuasion but coercion -
The exact opposite has occurred.
Protests exist to influence outcomes. They are a means to an end, not an end in themselves. And outcomes are what matter. While Israel and the United States have continued to thrive, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assad regime, and the Iranian project have been effectively obliterated. The Abraham Accords remain intact. The UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt - the moderate Arab world - remains aligned with the very forces the protesters demanded be destroyed. All of this survived unprecedented pressure in the streets of London, Paris, New York, and Washington..
They may have accumulated symbolic victories. They have not accomplished their strategic goals. They have not defeated their stated enemies. In any honest accounting, that means they lost the war
Words have meaning but outcomes rule the day.
What Comes Next
The war being over does not mean the work is over. The next phase - completing the victory and then winning the peace - will require different tools for different times.
The kinetic war is largely settled. The war of ideas remains active. That war demands something specific from those who have prevailed: confidence, moral clarity, and a refusal to surrender language, history, or legitimacy to those who have already been defeated on every battlefield that matters. The enemy’s power was always built on an illusion of strength and righteousness. That illusion has been shattered.
What remains is to secure what has been won, rebuild what was broken, and ensure the defeat is recognized for exactly what it is.
The war is over. It is simply a matter of time before everyone realizes it.
Daniel Rosen is a cofounder of Emissary4all. Emissary is a movement which seeks to utilize technology to organize individual individuals and communities to combat antisemitism online and off-line. You can follow him on Instagram at mindsandhearts