Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), estimates that it is too early to determine that the current protests in Iran would topple the regime.
In an interview with Radio 103FM, Sabti noted that while the protests are more intense than those in the past, their scope is still not critical.
"In the short-term, these are very nice scenes that help Israel," said Sabti. "We would like more of this, and I wish for us and for the Iranian people that they won't oppress them, but the quantities are still not large enough."
According to Sabti, the current protests differ in quality and the courage shown by the civilian protesters. "The protests' quality is very high, and the protesters' anger toward the forces is much greater; they are much bolder."
Sabti also addressed the conduct of the Iranian security forces and claimed that there is a noticeable decrease in willingness to suppress the protests using violence. "The forces are relatively passive this time since they feel the problem in their wallet. They say their salaries were cut in half."
He says that there are initial signs of desertion among low-level security officials. "There is some desertion, not in large numbers, among the lower levels. Deserters are moving to the other side, and people in uniform with their faces covered are burning pictures of the Supreme Leader. One even burned a picture of Qasem Soleimani."
Sabti added that according to recent polls, "about 92% of Iranians hate their regime."
Regarding the Israeli response to the protests, Sabti commended the post on X (formerly Twitter) by a page attributed to the Mossad, which expressed solidarity with the protesters and criticized the Iranian regime. "The statement is amazing, it is very good," he declared. On the fact that the post was deleted, he added: "Maybe they wanted a teaser, even I understand that it's a trick to draw attention."