President Trump's team continues to press for us to accept the participation of Turkish troops in the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to be deployed in the Gaza Strip.
These Turkish forces can be expected to do everything in their power to help Hamas effectively remain heavily armed and dangerous. I write "effectively" because the Turks could certainly participate in meaningless photo-op disarmament events.
Turkish forces could not only deploy as human shields for the benefit of Hamas, but also as a force positioned opposite Israeli lines to intercept and/or repel Israeli attacks against Hamas targets.
I appreciate that President Trump is not on the same page as we are when it comes to Turkey in general and Erdoğan in particular.
Washington completely ignored Erdoğan's 30 March 2025 call during Eidal-Fitr prayers: "May Allah destroy Zionist Israel."
Instead, President Trump praised Erdoğan as "tough" and "very smart."
But Washington's attitude toward Turkey is irrelevant. Under all circumstances, the Trump team does not want a catastrophic conflict involving Israel and Turkey.
I appreciate that even if one were to carry out a series of conflict simulations examining how the deaths of Turkish soldiers in Gaza might play out under various scenarios, the outcome is never escalation to the point of a catastrophic armed conflict between Turkey and Israel.
The experts would note that decision-makers would have no choice but to showrestraint, knowing full well that everyone would have too much to lose.
But these simulations take place before real Turks with real families are killed by Israel. Not killed in one isolated incident but repeatedly killed as Turkish forces refuse to back down from shielding Hamas.
A series of deaths that ignites the Turkish street.
This would be followed by a spiraling conflict caused by misjudgments by both sides and a great deal of bad luck.
Are the odds 50%? 20%? Even just 10%?
None of us - Americans, Turks, or Israelis - can afford to roll the dice on this.
For everyone's sake, Turkish forces cannot be part of the ISF.
Dr. Aaron Lerner is head of IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations
Website: www.imra.org.il