Throughout the course of Mediterranean naval history, control of the Aegean and the waters around Cyprus figured prominently in the war fighting strategies of the Greeks, Persians, Romans, Byzantines, Venetians and Ottomans. Now, Turkey has announced its intention to seize this strategic area in order both to exploit its energy resources as well as to further its aim of reestablishing the Ottoman Empire.
To confront this threat, Greece, Cyprus and Israel have recently announced their intention of forming a joint 2,600 man Quick Reaction Force, that will also include naval and air assets. Although as a first step this development represents a good start, people should understand that the Turkish threat to the Eastern Mediterranean will require vastly more resources if it is to be thwarted.
The Turks currently field the second largest army in NATO and are engaged in a massive expansion of their military industrial complex. In particular, Turkish drone, missile, integrated air defenses and naval construction have reached remarkable technological levels of world class sophistication. Determined to be militarily self sufficient, the Turks are developing the KAAN, a 5th generation fighter and a main battle tank called the Altay, both of which are expected to be highly successful export items in the future.
According to open sources, the Turkish General Staff has mapped out 4 major axes for offensive operations:
The first involves a westward thrust to seize Greek Macedonia and the strategically important port of Thessaloniki.
The second involves a combined airborne/amphibious assault to seize as many Greek islands in the Aegean as possible.
The third involves their heavily armed 30,000 man expeditionary force in Northern Cyprus seizing control of the rest of the island.
The fourth axis would see a combined Turkish/Syrian force advancing on Israel. According to President Erdogan, the latter’s objective would be nothing less than the complete destruction of the Jewish state and the “reconquest” of Jerusalem.
This may seem like a tall order, but the Turks are methodically building a military establishment that could one day allow these various offensives to be simultaneously executed. In the meantime, the Turks are slowly advancing in Syria, claiming all the offshore energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean and are attempting to gain access to the F-35, which would provide them with a war winning weapons platform.
Confronting this monster will, obviously, require much more than the recently announced 3 party QRF. Moreover, what must be appreciated, is the fact that when the Turks decide to stage what appears to be an isolated incident concerning, say, a gas rich portion of Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone, their entire armed forces will be prepared to immediately escalate the crisis to the level of a major war.
So, how can our triple alliance with Greece and Cyprus hope to defeat such a threat?
Greece
As far as the Greek Islands are concerned, saturating the Agean with anti ship and anti air missile batteries must be the first order of business. Squadrons of small autonomous anti ship torpedoes and fast Kamikaze boats will also have to be deployed in order to limit the Turkish Navy’s ability to operate freely within the Agean. And to counter the expected Turkish drone swarm threat, laser and High Power Microwave systems will have to be deployed. As long as these weapons have access to electricity, their “magazines” are virtually unlimited.
However, if the alliance is to stand any chance of holding the Agean, they absolutely have to adopt a plan to launch preemptive strikes against Turkish amphibious forces assembling for deployment. This could involve the use of cheap Hypersonic Glide Vehicles stationed in Western Greece and submerged encapsulated ballistic missiles secretly deployed throughout the Agean.
Lastly, one politically sensitive method of neutralizing a Turkish amphibious threat would be for the Greeks to employ autonomous underwater drones to covertly lay minefields off of Turkey’s ports just before a war erupts. This type of operation might not appeal to diplomats, but it would certainly make both the Turkish Navy and their amphibious forces vulnerable to a strike designed to destroy them in port.
Call this a Greek version of Pearl Harbor, if you will.
Without question, a Turkish advance against Western Thrace and Macedonia will result in a blood bath of historic proportions. Greek forces have very little room to maneuver without endangering their all important port of Thessaloniki. Greek forward defenses could always be improved, but would still be vulnerable to a Turkish “Schlieffen” hook through Southern Bulgaria. (The Greeks, it should be noted, faced a roughly similar situation in 1941 when the German Army outflanked their Metaxes Line in Macedonia.)
To deal with this possible envelopment, Greek defenses will have to be stretched to cover this exposed flank. What would help the Greek Army defeat this threat is if they invested in FPV attack drones and precision Mutiple Launch Rocket System artillery. These weapons could wreck havoc on the logistics train of any enveloping Turkish force. Once out of fuel and other supplies, the stalled lead elements of the Turkish armored thrust could then be picked off with ease.
While a Greek counterattack into Turkish Thrace, threatening the key city of Edirne, would be too costly to consider, its strategic importance could be significantly reduced if the Greek Army directed waves of battlefield ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at its logistical, transportation, and command/control facilities.
Assuming the Greeks can hold off the Turks long enough to inflict significant casualties on their enveloping forces and their direct assault formations, it could expose Edirne to the possibility of being captured. At that point, the Turks would probably either stop the war or switch to a defensive posture. In either event, the Turks would have to redeploy significant forces from the Agean, and Syria to protect the city, thereby compromising their offensives on these fronts.
Cyprus
Cyprus represents the only place where Turkey could score an early decisive victory. With a garrison of over 30,000 troops, backed by tanks and heavy artillery, it’s likely that the Turkish forces stationed in Northern Cyprus could quickly overrun the remaining independent Greek Cypriot part of the island. I’m afraid that not even Israeli air strikes could prevent this from happening. And assuming we’ve stationed a commando battalion on the island as part of the QRF, I really don’t know how long it could last.
Indeed, there is only one way I can think of that we could prevent this disaster from occurring: namely, if we were to preemptively hit all the Turkish army barracks with neutron weapons. In the event we did this, it’s likely that the overwhelming number of Turkish troops would most likely die instantly. At that point, the Greek Cypriot Army could go on the offensive, perhaps reinforced by a brigade sized air landing force flown in from Israel.
At the end of the day, my assumption is that the entire Turkish population of the island would be deported to mainland Turkey. Unless this is done, their continued presence on the island would be an excuse for Turkish meddling, that might include the sponsorship of a local Turkish terrorist organization like the Grey Wolves.
Syria
The foundation of the Turkish offensive in Syria will be laid by the formation of a modernized Syrian Salafi army. As it’s formed, Turkish “advisors” will most likely be stationed down to the battalion level. Certainly, as more sophisticated Turkish equipment is introduced, such as air defense batteries, heavy artillery, and armor even more Turkish technical personnel will have to be assigned to these units. Eventually, an agreement will be reached allowing the stationing of Turkish field units in Syria, probably in and around Damascus.
By this time, the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria will have been destroyed, allowing the Salafis and their Islamist allies-possibly including a Houthi expeditionary force, to concentrate their forces against the Druze enclave of Sweida. At this point, the stage would be set for an offensive by the Syrian Army against the Bashan, Dar’a and Sweida Governates.
Once Israeli resistance slows their advance, the Turkish Army would intervene ostensibly to defend the territorial integrity of Syria. It’s likely that when this occurs, the Egyptian Army will surge armor and mechanized infantry forces into Sinai, forcing Israel to split its forces in order to safeguard the Negev from a possible Egyptian invasion. What would happen with large numbers of Israeli forces tied down in Syria fighting Turks and Salafis is anybody’s guess. But, being split between two fronts, it would be an extremely dangerous position for Israel to be in.
Right now, the Trump Administration is setting the stage for this type of situation to be a certain eventuality. And the Government of Israel is not exactly doing everything it can to prevent it from occurring. Quite the contrary!
At the very least, the Israeli Army should be present in force throughout the 3 Syrian Governates the Syrian Salafis will be targeting. All Sunni residents of Dar’a, in particular, must be expelled given their pro Islamist sympathies and the Governate- along with the Bashan, should be formally annexed by Israel. The Druze enclave of Sweida should be expanded to the east and granted either outright independence or autonomous status. Israel’s new position on the Syrian Hermon should be annexed, as well, while Quneitra should be completely leveled to prevent it from being used by the Syrians as an urban fortress.
Perhaps the most important thing the Israeli Government should do is to deter the Turks and their local mercenaries from overrunning the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria. This enclave must be defended at all costs if Israel is to have the ability to launch a counterattack against the Turks from a position on their border.
If a war erupted with the Turks, and Israel were to offer independence to the Kurds of Southeastern Turkey, Ankara would find itself in a totally untenable position. And this is the one thing that would stop a Turkish offensive against the Golan in its tracks.
So, what should Israel do to protect the Syrian Kurds from the Turkish invasion forces preparing at the moment to annihilate them?
Only one thing: threaten to wipe Damascus off the map with a nuclear weapon if the Turks don’t stop their offensive against the Kurds and evacuate their Islamist mercenaries from the Kurdish areas they’re occupying north of the Euphrates River.
I realize that some people might recoil at my suggestion. But our need to protect the Kurds is critically important if we are going to be able to stop a Turkish-Syrian offensive against the Golan dead in its tracks.
Once war with the Turks seems to be in the offing, there are two preemptive options that would be available to Israel: the first involves two EMP detonations- one over central Turkey, that would paralyze its capital, Ankara, while the second one would occur over Istanbul, essentially shutting down the Turkish Navy’s command center and causing a monumental humanitarian crisis for millions of Turkish civilians.
The second option involves a massive Hypersonic Glide Vehicle strike targeting all Turkish corps and divisional command/control facilities, communications centers, logistics complexes, air fields and strategic ports, such as Izmir, Iskenderun and Mersin. Obviously, these two options are not mutually exclusive and should really be combined for maximum effect.
If possible, large AUUVs equipped with mines, encapsulated ballistic missiles and cruise missiles could be used to close off key Turkish ports and launch follow on strikes against Turkish Army and military industrial facilities.
As far as Israel’s land forces are concerned, if we’re talking about a war primarily against the Turks, the IDF must significantly increase the number of long range MLRS and tube artillery assets its field units have at their disposal. This is because given the amount of Turkish integrated air defenses that are expected to be operating on the battlefield, we really don’t know how long it will take to neutralize them. Therefore, assuming our land forces have been provided with an overwhelming amount of artillery, the IAF wouldn’t have to provide close air support as soon as the war erupted. Rather, it could attack other important targets, less heavily defended, to the rear of the fighting front.
I should mention two additional systems that would be of crucial importance if the IDF is to be able to neutralize Turkish battlefield air defenses as quickly as possible. They include swarms of autonomous FPV drones and small tactical cruise missiles equipped with radar homing capabilities- both of which would be controlled by the land forces.
Lastly, if close air support is not immediately available to IDF units that are deployed along the Syrian front, the use of thermobaric warheads by the MLRS batteries would provide a devastating weapon that could stop enemy assaults just as they’re advancing to engage our frontier defenses. From what I’ve read about their use by the Russians in Ukraine, bombardments by thermobaric equipped MLRS artillery tends to inflict not only a massive degree of devastation but it also generates a substantial amount of fear amongst troops on the receiving end of these weapons.
This is exactly what we need to disrupt and paralyze attacking enemy soldiers before they can penetrate our forward defenses. In fact, the Russian thermobaric units are so feared by the Ukrainians that they are routinely singled out for destruction the minute they’re discovered.
In conclusion, I think it’s fair to say that the idea of a triple alliance consisting of Greece, Cyprus and Israel is a good one. However, given the nature of the Turkish threat it’s facing, significant improvements to both the IDF and Greek Army are needed. From a doctrinal standpoint, the adoption of a preemptive response to Turkish provocations that may be a prelude to war must also be agreed upon if the alliance is going to stand any chance of defeating Turkey.
Certainly, our proposed use of nuclear weapons to paralyze Turkey will also have to be accepted as a necessary step by all three members of the alliance. However, the defense of Cyprus and the survival of the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria are two critical issues that will require some very serious thought. The Kurds, as I’ve suggested, could be protected if Israel agreed to extend a nuclear umbrella over their enclave. And the Greek Cypriot state could very well endure assuming Israel agreed to target the Turkish garrison with a barrage of neutron weapons.
But if the Israeli government declines to even consider the use of nuclear weapons, it’s likely that the alliance may very well lose its war with Turkey