President Donald Trump insists that US strikes this summer “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but regional experts dispute that claim and warn that another Israel-Iran war may be looming, the New York Times reports.
The 2015 nuclear deal has expired, sanctions are back in force, and Iran is blocking inspectors from new facilities. Israel believes Iran still holds enough enriched uranium for up to 11 nuclear bombs, while Tehran claims its stockpile was destroyed.
Iran is reportedly building a new underground site, dubbed Pickaxe Mountain, without international oversight. Analysts say this uncertainty could trigger another Israeli strike, as Israel views Iran’s nuclear progress as an existential threat. Tehran, meanwhile, is said to be preparing for massive retaliation involving firing two thousand missiles a day at Israel, and not 500 in twelve days.
Across the region, Iran is increasingly isolated as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE deepen cooperation with Washington and Trump, seeking stability while avoiding direct confrontation with Tehran and its network of proxies.
Iran’s leaders show little interest in renewed negotiations. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced U.S. “arrogance,” and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected talks unless Washington offers guarantees and compensation-terms the U.S. refuses.
The International Atomic Energy Agency suspects that much of Iran’s uranium stockpile survived the strikes, though verification is impossible without inspections. Suspicions are that China is helping the Iranians increase the production of ballistic missiles, despite the renewal of UN sanctions on the Tehrani regime.
With tensions high and uncertainty growing, experts warn that another Israel-Iran conflict now seems only a matter of time.