As we await the release of the last hostages, alive and dead, our focus is of course on that happy eventuality. Bringing back the entirety of the hostages taken (along we hope with the body of Hadar Goldin), will allow for the binding of a painful and festering wound in our society,
Right now, that is our focus, not the price that we will be forced to pay for that release.
And that price is steep. There will be 250 life sentence prisoners, ie., murderers, released, as well as 1700 prisoners taken since the war broke out.
It is still not clear what the conditions are for the release of the Palestinian Arabs. Whether they will be exiled, and to where, and for how long are details that might still be being discussed. Certainly, there will have to be some decisions made quickly in order to keep to the proffered schedule.
For each of the 20 living hostages there will be almost 100 Palestinian Arabs released, and for each of the dead Israeli bodies returned, Israel will return 15 dead Palestinian Arabs.
These are daunting ratios to be sure. However, they pale in comparison to the 1027 Palestinian Arabs released for the return of Gilad Shalit in 2011 after a captivity of five years.
While there might be some comfort from the fact that the ratios are somewhat less painful than they were in 2011, that, to me, is not the real difference here.
The real difference is to be found in two respects:
1. the government leadership difference and
2. the larger societal difference.
Ironically, it is Yahya Sinwar who has helped our leaders look at the current situation through different lenses than before, Sinwar was one of the 1027 released in 2011, and went on to be a primary leader in the October 7th massacre and the ensuing war,
He single handedly has inoculated our leaders from being willing to release any who might follow a similar path. Of course we can not know who among the 250 would be motivated to follow in Sinwar’s footsteps, but we sure can approach each prospective Palestinian Arab releasee from this perspective.
This wariness also underlies the currently undiscussed question of what will happen to the released. What restrictions will be put upon them, where will they be released to, and can Israel do something innovative that will enable us to track their whereabouts. Chipping, anyone?
I would suggest that even more significantly different now from 2011 is the mindset and the attitude of Israeli society. Gilad Shalit was seen as a one off, a tragic mishap rather than the preferred modus operandus of the Hamas terror machine,
Among the many wake up calls provided by Hamas on October 7th was the realization that kidnapping and hostage taking was seen by Hamas as a can’t lose strategy. Hamas in all likelihood assumed, based on the Shalit episode, that Israel would pay an enormous price for the release of our hostages and would be stymied as to how to respond, and thus cowed into inactivity.
In this regard, Hamas erred both tactically and strategically. Their tactical error was revealed when Israel launched what would become a ferocious two year war of vengeance.
The strategic error was in not thinking through the implications of their actions. Ironically, it was both the number of hostages taken and soldiers and citizens killed on October 7th, the inhuman ferocity of Hamas’s attacks, and the focus of the attack on so many who had been so conciliatory to so many Gazans over the years, that prompted a deep-seated and visceral Israeli response.
Calling our reaction a “wake up call” does not adequately capture the depth of the pain, and the realization of our errors - we were in fact all part of the Conceptzia - nor capture the full recognition of the evil that existed alongside of us.
We were not woken up; we were traumatized.
The impact of the trauma was seen in the 130% response of reservists to the call of duty, and the awesomely heroic willingness to put their lives on hold for months and even years in order to defend their nation.
The ripple effect of their heroism has been profound, as thousands of citizens have sought to support them and their families. We have seen a mini-religious revival among both soldiers and civilians, and most impressively, we have seen so many soldiers who indicate that they want to keep protecting and defending their nation, even as they take off their uniforms and return to their prior lives.
I would submit that Hamas unwittingly has altered the DNA of Israeli society, On October 6th, 2023 we were a fractious society seriously divided by the issue of judicial reform where many blithely spoke of civil disobedience, if not actual civil war.
“Thanks” to the inhumanity of Hamas, we quickly came to understand our true existential tenuousness and immediately understood the depth of the venom that attacked us and with which we were confronted.
Earlier in 2023 there were those who looked at the trajectories of other nations, seeing decline or dissolution after some 80 years of independence, and openly speculated as to whether Israel would follow such a course.
Instead, our brush with intended destruction shook off not only our complacency, but also our intrinsic conviction of stability and sovereign existence.
The Swords of Iron War was not a repeat of the lawn mowing exercises of prior Gazan conflicts; it more resembled an updated reprise of the 1948 War of Independence combined with the Six Days War of 1967.
We have awoken as a society, a society that regards its young people with unbridled admiration. Those who thought that we were rearing an entitled self-absorbed generation of youth, now realize that we have been rearing lions, young men and women of astounding bravery, determination and resilience.
Our upcoming generations should provide us with great confidence, hope and optimism for Israel’s future. They will not be lulled into unawareness nor disregard for the threats and the challenges we face.
They will never forget October 7th and the “what ifs” that might have occurred, but for their own heroism.
So, yes, we knowingly and willingly accept the trade off of the release of so many Palestinian thugs for our hostages. Let’s not worry about the numbers. Let’s focus on making sure that those thugs and their progeny will never again rise up against us.
Douglas Altabef is the Chairman of the Board of Im Tirtzu and a Director of the Israel Independence Fund.