Senior Israeli political analyst Amit Segal provided an assessment of recent developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas war and ongoing hostage deal negotiations, describing the Israeli assassination attempt in Qatar as the "most successful failed assassination in history."
Speaking on Channel 12, Segal said that Israel had, in fact, initiated the American-backed plan intended to bring the war to a close. However, he noted, problematic clauses were inserted during the process, and it remains to be seen whether they will be removed in the final version. “The feeling is, again, that Israel won’t be surprised tonight,” he said, referring to the expected announcement regarding the deal.
Segal emphasized that without the failed assassination attempt in Qatar, none of the current diplomatic progress would have taken place. “Because when Donald Trump says we’re on the verge of a deal, he may be wrong, but I’ll tell you what he’s basing it on. He’s basing it on the Qataris telling him, ‘listen, Hamas will go for it.’”
According to Segal, the Qataris—who in the winter had obstructed a partial deal to bring home 10 living and 18 dead hostages—have now reversed their stance out of fear. “What changed is their realization that after five Muslim capitals, they’re the sixth Muslim one the war has reached, and they really don’t want it to continue,” Segal explained. Quoting former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's famous words to Yasser Arafat, Segal said the Qataris are now essentially saying, “Sign, you dogs, sign.”
On the political front, Segal stated that as long as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the current plan, it will pass in the government. However, he questioned whether the government would survive afterward. “We’re already in an election year, and everyone’s looking for an easy exit,” Segal noted.
He pointed out that it would be politically convenient for Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to distance themselves from the deal by claiming that they upheld their principles of sovereignty and settlement expansion, while Netanyahu had, in their view, betrayed them.
Segal also suggested that Netanyahu may see the plan as a strategic opportunity to complete a full political reset: “To pass a draft law, achieve normalization, and to head out into an election year when the whole bloc is more relaxed after the war is over.”