Now is the time for Israel to annex parts of Judea and Samaria that are strategically indispensable and affirm Jewish history. If the world insists recognizing a Palestinian Arab state on Israeli soil, then Israel must declare full dominion over its biblical heartland.
Yet the calculus is thorny. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), the crown jewel in the Abraham Accords, has warned that annexation is a “red line” that would rupture regional integration.
The Abraham Accords were epochal. They shattered decades of stale dogma that insisted the region would only accept Israel if it prostrated itself before Palestinian Arab demands. They showed that in the Middle East, it is strength that commands respect, not obsequiousness.
Yet, the accords were not unconditional. The Emiratis normalized relations on the understanding that annexation of Judea and Samaria and would be “frozen.” Frozen or suspended is not synonymous with abolished, and the text is conspicuously ambiguous on duration. Vagueness was the lubricant that enabled all parties to get comfortable.
This vagueness could now save the accords or be their downfall.
Israel has an unimpeachable case that the landscape has irrevocably shifted. The October 7 pogrom, the Palestinian Authority’s flagrant repudiation of the Oslo Accords, and the cascade of unilateral recognitions of a Palestinian state have changed the equation.
It is impossible to divine whether Abu Dhabi’s threats are real or just posturing. After all, the UAE has been a strong friend to Israel throughout its war with Hamas and has even proscribed public support for the Palestinian Arabs.
If the UAE is serious, it portends a return to Israel’s regional solitude. What Israel gained from the Abraham Accords was not just recognition, but acceptance. That is no trivial matter, and it cannot be dismissed out of hand, as Israel’s doctrinaire Far Right is wont to do.
Yet true acceptance cannot be contingent on Israel amputating its sovereignty or acquiescing to a Palestinian Arab terror-statelet in its heartland. The October 7 massacre exposed the lethal folly of such illusions.
Israel must remember that the Abraham Accords came about not because it was docile, but because it was strong. The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco did not normalize relations out of altruism, but because it served their interests.
The accords enhanced Emirati defenses against Iran, tethered them more tightly to Washington, and opened doors to Israel’s world-leading technology. None of that strategic calculus has shifted.
With this clarity, Israel should proceed with annexation. The nation’s greatest triumphs have always come from decisiveness, not dithering.
In 1967, when Arab armies surrounded Israel, it struck first. The world howled, France imposed an arms embargo, and the UN issued its predictable and pathetic pieties. Yet, in six days Israel not only ensured its survival, it secured Jerusalem, Judea, Samaria, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and the Sinai (later traded to Egypt for a peace treaty).
Israel’s security is anchored in these gains. Had Israel awaited international benediction, it would have been throttled in its cradle.
In 1981, when Israel destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor, the Jewish state faced widespread condemnation. Yet come 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, it was Israel’s actions that made it possible for an international military alliance to liberate Kuwait. There would have been so such action had Iraq held nuclear weapons.
Contrast this with 2005. Israel withdrew from Gaza unilaterally, uprooting Jewish families, leaving synagogues, to be set afire by Gazans, and even exhuming graves. The world applauded. Within six months Hamas controlled Gaza and 18 years of rocket attacks on Israel began. The applause has long faded. The blood price remains.
Annexation is no different. Judea and Samaria is not a negotiable trinket. It is the Jewish heartland. These hills are where Abraham walked, David reigned, and prophets spoke.
It is also strategically important high ground that commands Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Surrendering this territory, or even leaving it in limbo, would be a reckless gamble with Israel’s survival.
On the ground, the Jewish presence in Judea and Samaria is irreversible. Over half a million Jews live there. No government could uproot them without igniting a civil war. The fiction that these settlements will one day be ceded must end.
The unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state is a diplomatic intifada designed to preempt negotiation, immure Israel in imposed borders, and strip Israel of its sovereign prerogative.
If Israel responds meekly, it is surrendering sovereignty over the planet’s most important real estate.
It is time for some game theory.
If Israel balks at annexation for fear of alienating the UAE, it will have ceded sovereignty not only to Ramallah, but to Abu Dhabi. That would undermine the whole point of having a Jewish state. Worse, it would show that diplomatic isolation is an effective weapon against Israel.
Conversely, if Israel annexes Judea and Samaria and the UAE suspends or ends diplomatic relations, then Israel will at least know where it stands in the region. It would show that acceptance is conditional on perpetual Jewish vulnerability. That would confirm, once again, that what the world truly cannot abide is Jewish strength and sovereignty.
If annexation proceeds and the UAE throws a hissy fit but does not end diplomatic normalization, then that would be a clear win for Israel.
To frame it another way, if the price of friendship is Israel surrendering its land, then it is not friendship, but blackmail. It is an attempt to hold the Jewish state hostage, just as Hamas is holding Israelis hostage in Gaza.
The Emiratis are free to make their choices, but so is Israel. If normalization is a mirage, it is better to reveal that now than when Israel is more reliant on it.
That said, statesmanship requires calculation and conviction.
Annexation need not be maximalist to be meaningful. It can be phased and strategic.
The Jordan Valley, Israel’s eastern shield, must come first. Without it, Israel narrows to a perilous 14 kilometers (nine miles) wide at its narrowest point. Every serious peace plan - even the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative - has acknowledged Israel must control this valley.
The 'settlement' blocs around Jerusalem should follow. Half a million Jews live there and every sane observer knows they will never be expelled. These communities ensure Israeli contiguity and prevent any hostile encirclement of Jerusalem.
Annexing these areas is not radicalism; it is realism. In the face of unilateral Palestinian Arab recognition, Israel has every right to respond with unilateral assertion.
Such a move is not without risk. However, it is Israel’s best shot of affirming sovereignty, while moderating the international backlash. It sets markers that cannot be erased, while leaving the diplomatic aperture ajar for future arrangements.
At the heart of this matter is that Israel does not exist to gratify Abu Dhabi, or Brussels, or Washington, or the UN, or anyone else. Israel exists to guarantee the Jewish people’s survival in their ancestral land.
Regional integration is a luxury. Sovereignty is a necessity. If the choice is between sovereignty over Judea and Samaria or a seat at Emirati trade fairs, it is a no-brainer.
Ultimately, it is a contest between illusion and reality. The illusion is that Arab normalization depends on Israel passivity. The reality is that Israel’s existence depends on Israeli sovereignty.