I am not going to speculate as to what combination of circumstances would cause Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to have his Cabinet make a snap vote for a massive annexation which would make a Palestinian state impossible.
I am, however, certain that master politician Netanyahu is well aware that such a move would dramatically change the dynamics of Israeli politics.
Ever since Oslo, the non-Haredi members of national camp coalitions justified concessions to the Haredis on the grounds that their participation was required to have ruling coalitions which truly oppose a Palestinian Arab state.
But while a ruling coalition can unilaterally make all kinds of concessions with land that hasn't been annexed, a national referendum or the approval of 80 MKs would be required to roll back any annexation.
So the Palestinian Arab State "bogeyman" wouldn't play a role in post-annexation elections or coalition building.
Social welfare issues would. Defense would.
And it is difficult to predict what new voting blocs would coalesce. I would note, for example, that within the Likud it seems that many of the rank and file members favor government intervention in housing more than the leadership does.
Bottom line: Netanyahu wouldn't actually implement annexation for a short-lived political gain. It would have to be because, as was the case with the critical decisions he made vis-à-vis Iran and the beepers, he was compelled to act in order to serve vital national interests.
But first some basics:
Ordinance Law and Administration, 1948
...11B The law, jurisdiction and administration of the State shall apply to any area of the Land of Israel that the Government sets in an order.
So the Cabinet meets and votes and its over.
Whatever territory is marked on the map as designated for annexation would be annexed in a single cabinet vote.
And that vote could take place without it even being on the agenda for the meeting if no minister objects so it could be done literally with absolutely no advance warning.
There is a rich history of court cases establishing that a "resident" of Israel is someone whose "center of life" is in Israel.
So the moment that the Cabinet votes to annex an area, any Arab who was living in that area at the moment whose "center of life" is that location would be a resident of Israel.
Here is a link to 1.13.0001 issued by the Population and Immigration Authority with guidelines for establishing if Israel is someone's "center of life".
So all the Arabs present in the annexed area at the time of annexation who permanently resided in the annexed area would be Israeli residents.
That would give them the right to live anywhere in Israel and also the right to all of our social welfare services as well as all the tax obligations. They could also get a laissez passer for travelling overseas.
They also would qualify to apply for Israeli citizenship so that they could participate in the national elections either as a voter or a candidate.
What does Minister Smotrich's annexation map include?
The map annexes all but some tightly delineated major cities. I say "tightly delineated" because we annex many industrial areas which are adjacent to cities.
For example, it would appear from the map that the fantastic modern factories in the Hebron area become Israeli factories.
Bethlehem is also annexed, which is great news for Christians and for tourism in general.
Kalkiliya, which is a stone's throw from Kfar Sava and borders on our vital Route 6 toll road is also annexed.
Minister Smotrich indeed set a goal of maximum territory with minimum population. That "minimum" is hundreds of thousands of people who might shake their fists in public over the move while quietly celebrating their good fortune behind closed doors.
Celebrating the opportunity for a great life - while we celebrate that we have the space in Israel for our projected 20 million in 2065.
This is indeed a bold move. And the right move for our future.
Just as we managed when we added a substantial Arab population when we annexed eastern Jerusalem so too can do this today.
Dr. Aaron Lernerheads IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations.