A Big Gesture That Won’t Move the Needle
Spain declared an embargo on defense exports to Israel, presenting it as a bold moral stand. But embargoes only matter when they target critical arteries of supply. Spain is not one of Israel’s arteries. It is, at best, a capillary.
What Spain Actually Sells (and What It Doesn’t)
Strip away the rhetoric, and the numbers are modest. Spain’s exports to Israel consist mostly of:
- Non-lethal hardware: fire-control systems, vehicle parts, aircraft components.
- Maintenance services: short-term repairs and spares.
- Ammunition: such as the canceled 9mm deal that turned into a political football.
Useful, yes. Indispensable, no. None of this equipment is irreplaceable, nor is Spain a top-tier supplier to the Israeli defense establishment.
Israel’s Redundancy by Design
Israel has built its defense industry for precisely this scenario. Three pillars make the embargo irrelevant:
- Domestic depth: IAI, Rafael, Elbit, and IMI cover everything from missiles and UAVs to radars, optics, and ammunition.
- Allied backstops: The U.S. provides fighter jets and munitions; Germany supplies submarines and ships; Italy contributes training aircraft. Others, like South Korea and India, fill gaps.
- Configurability: Modern systems are modular. If a Spanish component disappears, an American, German, or Israeli substitute takes its place with minor integration work.
The result: Spain’s embargo may cause paperwork and mild irritation, but not a single operational capability will vanish.
Who Actually Pays: Spain
The pain will be felt not in Tel Aviv but in Madrid.
- Lost revenue and jobs: Defense companies live on maintenance and spare-parts contracts. Walking away from those means lost cash flow and lost employment.
- Capability setbacks: Spain’s armed forces have benefited from Israeli UAVs, avionics, and optics. Cutting ties reduces access to this expertise.
- Reputational damage: A supplier that politicizes contracts signals risk. Buyers want reliable partners, not fair-weather friends.
The paradox of symbolic embargoes is that they are designed to look tough abroad but end up biting hardest at home.
Will Others in Europe Follow?
There’s always the fear of dominoes. Will Spain’s gesture inspire others? Possibly, but not where it counts.
- Germany and Italy: Bound by multi-billion-euro naval and aerospace programs with Israel. Too much skin in the game to risk self-harm.
- France: Plays the arms dealer role globally and won’t burn bridges lightly.
- Central and Eastern Europe: Countries like Poland and the Czech Republic view Israel as a partner, not a pariah.
Some “gesture states” might copy Spain, but the European heavyweights won’t sabotage their own industries just to make a headline.
Ideology Fog vs. Strategic Foresight
At the core of Spain’s decision is a mindset that clouds much of today’s Western left. It’s the triumph of gesture over strategy.
- They think about the first move: the applause line, the headline, the virtue points.
- They ignore the second move: the lost contracts, weakened defense industry, and erosion of trust.
In politics, that may work for a news cycle. In defense economics, it ends in self-inflicted wounds. Spain’s embargo is the perfect case study: a government chasing moral theater while its industry foots the bill.
Symbolism vs. Reality
For Spain, the embargo is politics. For Israel, it’s logistics. Spain earns headlines; Israel replaces a supplier. Within months, Israeli defense firms will pivot to alternate sources, while Spanish manufacturers wonder why their bids no longer get invited.
A Note on Non-redundant indigestion
Spain planted a rotten entrée to impress the dining room; Israel sent theirs back and ordered elsewhere. Now Madrid is discovering the chef eats his own cooking — and the bathroom key is missing.
Conclusion
Embargoes matter only when you control chokepoints. Spain does not. Israel’s industrial depth and strong allies turn this embargo into a minor inconvenience. Spain, meanwhile, faces lost revenue, lost credibility, and lost opportunities.
"Moral" gestures may win applause. But in defense economics, cause and effect still apply. If you serve a rotten meal, don’t be surprised when you’re the one stuck with nausea and sick from queasiness.
Dr. Avi Perry is a former professor at Northwestern University, a former Bell Labs researcher and manager, and later served as Vice President at NMS Communications. He represented the United States on the UN’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Standards Committee, where he authored significant portions of the G.168 standard. He is the author of the thriller novel 72 Virgins and a Cambridge University Press book on voice quality in wireless networks, and is a regular op-ed contributor to The Jerusalem Post and Israel National News.