While the global spotlight remains focused on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, a quieter but equally consequential development is unfolding in the South Caucasus. Russia’s incremental military buildup and deepening presence in Armenia are sending ripples through an already delicate regional order. Analysts warn that Moscow’s increasing influence in Yerevan could undermine Trump's peace efforts and the historic agreement signed with Azerbaijan, heighten regional tensions, and reshape the geopolitical architecture of the Caucasus.
Over the past year, satellite imagery, local reports, and Western intelligence sources have confirmed a slow but steady increase in Russian military assets within Armenia. This includes not only reinforcements at the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri, but also mobile missile systems, additional air defense infrastructure, and rumored special forces deployments near key transit corridors.
According to regional analyst Dr. Leyla Mirzayeva: "This is not a sudden invasion. It’s a silent consolidation. Russia is embedding itself deeper into Armenian territory — physically and politically — while avoiding overt confrontation. It’s hybrid geopolitics at its most strategic.”
Following the 2020 Second Karabakh War, there was a brief period in which Russia seemed to act as a nominal peacekeeper, deploying forces to maintain a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, Baku and many international observers have grown increasingly skeptical of Moscow’s intentions.
Azerbaijan’s strategic alliance with Turkey, and its growing ties with Western partners, have reduced Russia’s traditional sway over the South Caucasus. In response, some experts believe Russia is attempting to reassert its influence through a closer military-political alignment with Armenia.
“Moscow sees Yerevan as the last dependable lever it can pull in the region,” says Stefan Berger, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“By reinforcing Armenia militarily, the Kremlin not only counters Western engagement but also reestablishes a pressure point against both Azerbaijan and Turkey.”
The deepening Russian presence is not just military. Politically, it is manifesting as growing pressure on the Armenian government, which has attempted in recent years to pursue a more pro-European orientation. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s cautious engagement with the EU has irritated Moscow, and some analysts interpret the Russian buildup as a signal: Armenia must choose — and quickly.
Tensions have already sparked domestic unrest. Protests in Yerevan have been reported against what some Armenian civil groups are calling a “slow occupation.” Yet, with economic dependency on Russia and little military alternative, Armenia’s options appeared limited, until the recent peace deal was signed.
This new peace deal is a game changer that strengthens Western influence in Armenia, at the expense of Russia and Iran. However, Moscow is not throwing in the towel just yet.
The implications of this shift extend beyond Armenia’s borders. Russia’s deepening hold could sabotage efforts to implement a lasting peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, which Trump recently announced. It may also reignite border skirmishes or stall the implementation of the peace deal.
Moreover, increased Russian presence on NATO’s southeastern periphery will likely alarm Western policymakers. While Armenia is not a NATO partner, its proximity to Georgia, Turkey (a NATO member), and energy corridors vital to Europe elevates the strategic stakes.
“If Russia turns Armenia into a forward operating base,” warns Dr. Mirzayeva, “then the South Caucasus becomes not a bridge between East and West — but a front line.”
Russia’s quiet buildup in Armenia is a reminder that power projection in the 21st century need not come with dramatic invasions. Instead, it can creep in — base by base, corridor by corridor, politician by politician — until the facts on the ground are no longer reversible.
For the South Caucasus, a region with fragile ceasefires and complex ethnic borders, such developments could prove explosive.
Unless counterbalanced by robust diplomacy, regional unity, and international engagement, Russia’s moves may herald a dangerous new normal — one in which the illusion of peace conceals the slow erosion of sovereignty and independence.
By transforming Armenia into a geostrategic outpost, Russia risks turning the South Caucasus from a zone of opportunity into yet another theater of great-power confrontation.
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and an Israel-based journalist. She is the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media."