We live in a volatile and rapidly shifting region, where threats evolve at breakneck speed. Past successes against Iran or Hezbollah are no guarantee for the future. If the IDF is not properly prepared for these emerging dangers, the next war could be exponentially more devastating.
The painful truth, as reflected by senior IDF officers—from generals to company commanders speaking off the record—is that Israel was not prepared for the “Iron Swords” war, and it has already suffered a strategic loss in its campaign against Hamas.
Mounting and Evolving Threats
Hezbollah remains active, despite being weakened. It possesses hundreds of kilometers of tunnels and enough ammunition to paralyze northern Israel—just as it did during a barrage of over 100 rockets per day in the days leading up to a ceasefire. This threat persists, prompting the IDF to deploy an entire division to the northern border out of concern Hezbollah might join a future conflict involving Iran.
Syria and the Iranian Axis: Previous optimism over the fall of the Assad regime and Iranian influence has given way to a reality where jihadist groups and Turkish forces now operate freely in Syria, presenting a far greater threat than Assad’s regime ever did.
Jordanian Border: Along Israel’s 300-kilometre border with Jordan, Iranian-backed terror cells are establishing a guerrilla presence.
Egypt: Intelligence suggests the Egyptian military is preparing for a potential confrontation with Israel, while the IDF lacks sufficient forces to meet such a challenge.
Judea and Samaria: The region remains a powder keg, and the IDF currently lacks the necessary ground forces to secure all its critical sectors.
Ground Forces in Crisis
The IDF’s ground forces are severely depleted and undergoing structural decline. Their inability to decisively defeat Hamas is only part of a larger problem. Meanwhile, Iran—bolstered by Chinese and Pakistani assistance—is rapidly enhancing its missile capabilities and nuclear program. The IDF has yet to develop any concrete solutions to counter these strategic threats.
Chinese Assistance to Iran includes:
Massive shipments of ballistic missile materials such as ammonium perchlorate, sufficient for hundreds of missiles.
Continued supply of technological components for missile and UAV production.
A longstanding military partnership dating back to the 1980s.
Pakistani Involvement:
The AQ Khan network previously transferred centrifuge technology and nuclear expertise to Iran.
Though cautious due to international scrutiny, Pakistan covertly aided Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
After the 12-day Israel-Iran war, Pakistan reportedly pledged to replenish Iran’s depleted missile stockpiles.
Strategic Blind Spot
While Israel remains bogged down in the Gaza Strip, its leadership is failing to prepare the military for the next and potentially far more dangerous conflict. This is not a matter of opinion but of verifiable strategic assessments. The nation's leadership is focused on the present, neglecting the long-term development of a military capable of meeting future threats.
Without a shift in strategic vision and preparation, Israel may find itself tragically unprepared for the wars ahead.