As Israel continues its operations in Syria, concerns are growing over a potential direct confrontation with Turkey, a nation increasingly seen as the protector of the al-Julani regime.
Is such a clash truly on the horizon? Arutz Sheva - Israel National News spoke with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a leading expert on Turkey and editor of the Turkiscop journal. He is also a research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
"There is definitely reason for concern," Dr. Yanarocak states. “Since the fall of Assad’s control in some regions, Turkey has become a dominant player in northern Syria. It now oversees significant territory, including civil infrastructure such as roads and airports, and is steadily deepening its influence.”
Dr. Yanarocak points to recent unrest in Suwayda as a sign of this growing influence. He claims that minority fighters involved in the riots acted under Turkish sway, particularly in opposition to the Druze community. He also suggests Turkey’s displeasure with improving relations between Israel and the al-Julani government may have contributed to the escalation.
According to his analysis, Turkey may be attempting to prevent any formal agreements between Israel and Syria, such as a non-aggression pact or even Syria’s potential involvement in the Abraham Accords. “When we look at who benefits from the instability in Suwayda, the answer is clear: Turkey,” he asserts.
“Israeli airstrikes on Syrian military targets only deepen Syria’s dependence on Turkey. Following those strikes, Turkey’s defense ministry publicly offered support to Syria, including military assistance and defense against terrorism. This is part of a broader pattern of Turkish entrenchment in Syria.”
When asked whether President Erdogan is seeking direct conflict with Israel, Yanarocak explains that Erdogan sees himself in a rivalry with Israel for dominance in the region. “He has watched Iran be humbled by Israel and now sees an opportunity to elevate Turkey’s role as a regional leader, perhaps even as the head of the Muslim world. While Erdogan may avoid direct military engagement, he is certainly interested in confrontation on a political and strategic level, especially under the watchful eye of the United States.”
Despite the tensions, there are efforts underway to manage the situation. A direct phone line between Ankara and Jerusalem was recently established with Azerbaijani mediation, a move Yanarocak sees as critical.
“We must use this line of communication to reduce friction,” he says. “Clear dialogue is essential. Israel needs to articulate its boundaries, and in turn, Turkey will do the same. This is how we avoid dangerous miscalculations.”
In closing, Dr. Yanarocak reminds that while Turkey is a formidable military force, equipped with advanced Western technology, it is also aware of the IDF’s capabilities. “This is a two-way street. Turkey knows it hasn’t faced a military on Israel’s level, and any such confrontation would come at a high cost.”