Veteran Israeli commentator Ehud Yaari offered a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing negotiations for the release of hostages and the future stages of the war, on Nadav Perry's podcast.
According to Yaari, Hamas currently finds itself “in a vortex of chaos and confusion,” grappling with internal power struggles of a kind not seen since the terror group’s founding in late 1987. Despite the dysfunction, Yaari believes there is still a potential path for the return of hostages. However, he cautioned that the second phase of the process—transitioning from a ceasefire to discussions on dismantling Hamas' armed wing and establishing new governance arrangements in Gaza—could prove to be a significant stumbling block. “These are two issues that could require an enormous amount of time, with no guarantee that agreements can be reached,” he warned.
Yaari described the situation as fraught with strategic dilemmas. On one hand, he explained, any political resolution would be impossible without Hamas’ agreement. On the other, failure to reach such an agreement could leave Gaza in ruins, with no prospect for rebuilding or a viable future.
Regarding the broader conflict, Yaari concluded: “We are in the twilight zone of the armed struggle”—marking the climax of a century-long Palestinian conflict. He added that, in his assessment, Hamas will “no longer be a militarily significant force in the coming years” following the current phase of the war.