Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan continue to escalate amid claims from Iranian and Russian sources of alleged cooperation between Baku and Israel.
Roman Gurevich, honorary ambassador of the Jewish Agency in Azerbaijan, warns: “Iran is very angry with the Azerbaijanis and claims they allowed Israeli fighter jets to fly through their airspace—an accusation the Azerbaijanis firmly deny.”
According to Gurevich, the claim is also illogical from a technical perspective: “The shortest route for Israeli Air Force aircraft does not even pass through Azerbaijani airspace.”
Alongside Iran’s public campaign against Azerbaijan, Gurevich reports an unprecedented threat: “A threat in Farsi was issued to assassinate the President of Azerbaijan, accusing him of not being sufficiently Muslim and of being a friend of the State of Israel. This is an extraordinary and unacceptable threat.”
Gurevich suggests that the Iranian offensive stems from the weakened state of the regime in Tehran: “After suffering a harsh blow from Israel and humiliation, Iran is seen in the Middle East as a country failing to follow through on its threats. They must restore their deterrence. But they won’t act against Saudi Arabia—the US won’t allow it. They fear Turkey, which could respond forcefully. So they’re focusing on Azerbaijan, which they view as a smaller, less threatening country that is befriending the Zionist regime.”
He adds that the main concern now is that Iran might instigate internal unrest within Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, fresh tensions are emerging between Azerbaijan and Russia after a Russian error led to the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft, killing Azerbaijani citizens. “Baku demanded an apology and accountability, but Russia has not accepted direct responsibility. President Putin did call the Azerbaijani president, but with no tangible results,” Gurevich says.
Over the past few days, he reports, tensions have heightened further: “Russian special police forces arrested dozens of Azerbaijanis, some of whom hold Azerbaijani citizenship. Two detainees died—one allegedly of a heart attack—and three others were hospitalized, one in intensive care. The background is reportedly a criminal case dating back to 2001.”
In response, Azerbaijan took a firm stand: “They are defending their national honor. They shut down the Russian news agency Sputnik in the country, arrested several staff members, and even recorded the arrests—just as the Russians did. The claim is that these individuals were Russian intelligence operatives.”
Gurevich concludes with a summary of the region’s complex dynamics: “Azerbaijan is striving to maintain good relations with all countries in the region, even those in conflict. Right now, it’s trying to walk a tightrope—defending its dignity and citizens without severing ties with Russia.”