Arab affairs expert Dr. Guy Bechor of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya explained to Arutz-7 today why he does not think there will be an Iraqi uprising against Saddam Hussein at this point:
"It won't happen before public order in Iraq collapses. The Iraqis are less afraid of Saddam himself than they are of what will be after Saddam - especially when the U.S. promises 'weird' things like democracy and the like - things that are totally foreign to them… They fear that all the hatred and enmity between the Sunnis, the Shiites, the Kurds and others will quickly and violently surface if the secular Baath party's regime disappears, leaving total disarray. If the Americans would state right now what their proposed leadership is and what their plans are, it would be easier for the Iraqis to accept; but unfortunately it doesn’t look like the Americans are doing that…"
Bechor said that the danger of terrorism against the Americans cannot be discounted:
"They may start with car bombs and the like, just as happened in Beirut - terrorists knocked down an entire building - from where the Americans quickly ran away; the Americans may long for the day when they at least had someone to talk to in Iraq…"
Dr. Bechor said that it was easier for the U.S. to change the regime in Afghanistan than it will be in Iraq:
"The situations are very different. Iraq plays a much more central and important role in the Arab world than the isolated Afghanistan. In addition, the hatreds in Iraq are much deeper and more murderous and brutal…"
"It won't happen before public order in Iraq collapses. The Iraqis are less afraid of Saddam himself than they are of what will be after Saddam - especially when the U.S. promises 'weird' things like democracy and the like - things that are totally foreign to them… They fear that all the hatred and enmity between the Sunnis, the Shiites, the Kurds and others will quickly and violently surface if the secular Baath party's regime disappears, leaving total disarray. If the Americans would state right now what their proposed leadership is and what their plans are, it would be easier for the Iraqis to accept; but unfortunately it doesn’t look like the Americans are doing that…"
Bechor said that the danger of terrorism against the Americans cannot be discounted:
"They may start with car bombs and the like, just as happened in Beirut - terrorists knocked down an entire building - from where the Americans quickly ran away; the Americans may long for the day when they at least had someone to talk to in Iraq…"
Dr. Bechor said that it was easier for the U.S. to change the regime in Afghanistan than it will be in Iraq:
"The situations are very different. Iraq plays a much more central and important role in the Arab world than the isolated Afghanistan. In addition, the hatreds in Iraq are much deeper and more murderous and brutal…"