Since the day Israel launched a surprise war to eliminate threats and confront the theocratic regime in Tehran, analysts have been examining the situation from three perspectives: military-security, political, and social. Various dimensions of the crisis have been evaluated, from diplomatic outlooks to the consequences of tensions and the level of engagement.
From a military-security standpoint, Israel has achieved significant success. Industrial zones and military-defense industries in most cities have been destroyed, military equipment centers, radar systems, missile bases have been wiped out, many fighter jets have burned on the ground, and most army and naval bases have been pulverized in waves of airstrikes. The IRGC headquarters and military targets in many cities have been bombarded. A majority of nuclear sites have been targeted by fighter jets, many drone and missile infrastructures across the country have been disabled, and most missile launch platforms have been neutralized.
However, many missile cities and underground bases have not yet been destroyed and remain on Israel's target list. The regime's terrorist and military threats are still present. The Quds Force, its commanders, and operatives have not yet been paralyzed, and the infectious limbs of this force have yet to be surgically removed. Abroad, clashes between supporters and opponents of Iran’s ruling regime—and participants in the folly of 1979—have intensified. Islamic Republic embassies (which function as outposts for intelligence and IRGC operatives) remain active, and their terrorism and espionage apparatus continues to operate.
Various IRGC command centers and the regime’s terrorist sleeper cells are striving to preserve the regime and their leader. The burning and destruction of Iran in a war with no just cause means nothing to them. They remain loyal to their terrorist machine and, through the Shiite clerical lens, believe that only they should hold power. If all of Iran is destroyed and bombarded, it does not matter to them. Their behavior is a testament to the stubbornness, irrationality, radicalism, and power display that are core to the destructive and hollow ideology of Khomeinism.
Today, although Iran is a bankrupt, ruined, fragmented, and scorched land—the dark legacy of the clerics—the path to full success is still long and winding. The people have yet to be allowed to breathe without fear. The suffocating atmosphere is the result of 47 years of crime, suppression, and displays of Islamic savagery. The ruling mafia-terrorist regime continues to arrest, prosecute, and torture people on trumped-up charges of espionage for Israel, contact with Israel, or spreading pro-Israel content on social media. The regime’s judicial system, censorship apparatus, suppression forces, Basij militia, and propaganda machine have thus far been untouched by Israeli attacks. The bloodthirsty wolves of the Supreme Leader’s rule continue to seek execution, torture, and suppression. The thugs of the Basij, police, army, and IRGC still breathe and display power.
This is a criminal and tyrannical regime that has always been the enemy of the Iranian people. It completely shut down the internet so citizens wouldn’t hear evacuation warnings, increasing the death toll, while the Islamic propaganda apparatus mourns over the corpses in a performative spectacle. When missiles are heard, people don’t come out to protest—they search for shelter. Yet for years, the Iranian people have been looking for a safe haven.
At this current stage—these dark and bitter days—the core of the regime, its suppression machinery, and propaganda arms are all trying to preserve the status quo. They hope to have a third caliph replace the second (Khamenei) so that Shiite clerical rule in Iran doesn't collapse. A temporary vacuum at the top won’t stop the ideology of Khomeinism as long as the IRGC remains intact. The regime will not be eliminated unless its propaganda and suppression apparatus are entirely dismantled.
Khamenei, like a sewer rat, is hiding in an underground bunker and has intensified the security environment. A pitiful and cowardly leader who abandoned his people under fire and smoke. They say all his connections and communications have been cut and he is unreachable. Though his death would cause psychological instability in the already collapsing regime, it would symbolically weaken the authoritarian system and give hope to a nation that has endured 47 years of brutality, savagery, dictatorship, and terrorism. The Iranian people’s liberation from the Islamic Republic won’t be fulfilled by the mere announcement of Khamenei's death. Even after his destruction, there won’t be much chaos in the already war-torn and devastated country. While conservative Arab states are cautiously seeking guarantees that the collapse of the clerical regime won’t spark Shiite unrest across the Persian Gulf region, they may gradually shed their fears and respond to the Islamic Republic's aggressive and violent actions.
On the other hand, the West still clings to classical diplomacy doctrine, trying to manage costs. Unfortunately, Europe’s greatest strategic mistake is insisting that the Islamic Republic must not be destroyed. They favor a "controlled transition," but this will not be forgotten by the Iranian people after the regime’s collapse. The West still fears the regime’s bluffs, threats, and provocations and worries that extremist agents might act violently in the West. However, they will likely align with regime change in time.
Europe has not helped cut off the regime’s propaganda and intelligence networks. Outlets like CNN, BBC, and religious radicals who took part in the 1979 upheaval will not support the grassroots pro-change movement. They do not reinforce the domestic resistance and protest network. They appear to be sworn enemies of foundational change in Iran. Even after the bombing of state media centers, these outlets continue their propaganda war against the war-stricken society, fearing a national uprising against the clerics.
In the end, Netanyahu said truthfully - that "the true savior from this horrifying abyss is the Iranian people themselves. Regime change does not come from the skies, but from the streets."
The job is not done. As long as this regime—protector of the Ayatollahs—breathes, and its suppression and propaganda apparatus continue to function, there will be no peace in the world. Although humiliating, weakening, and subduing Khamenei is useful, Israel and the U.S. have always been focused on eliminating threats and securing their interests. But these warnings must be taken seriously. Whether it's a staged internal coup, the continuation of current martial law, or the disappearance of regime leaders, all scenarios resemble a snake merely shedding its skin. The regime’s venom and fangs remain intact.
Although targeted and structural military operations can accelerate the regime's collapse, the head of the snake—Khamenei—must be severed first. Then, the suppression apparatus (Basij, IRGC, army, police) must be paralyzed like a nuclear bomb. Although the clerics aim to drag everyone into the abyss with them, and the distracted, theatrical opposition is obsessed with cameras and competition, the Shiite religious mafia and the criminal syndicate of the Islamic Republic—now wounded, vengeful, and desperate—are still bent on retaliation. Democratic transition remains a daunting challenge, yet ultimately, it is the Iranian people—not foreigners—who will finish the job if it matters to them.
This is the secret of history: glory will return to Iran, and its people must endure the thorny path to final victory.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs