New research reveals a disconnect between expert assessments and public perception
A new poll shows that two-thirds of Israelis show little interest in Turkish affairs, despite experts viewing Ankara's policies as among the most serious threats to national security. A comprehensive study conducted by the "Dor Moria" analytical center in April-May 2025 encompassed 1,001 respondents, expert analysis included assessments from seven specialists, and content analysis covered 26 Israeli media outlets. The polling was conducted by the "Geocartography" sociological center.
Public Indifference vs. Expert Alarm
Survey results demonstrate that 65.3% of Israelis either show no interest in Turkish news (29.1%) or follow it infrequently (36.2%). Only 3.2% of respondents actively follow all aspects of Turkish affairs, while 31.6% follow major news developments.
Secular Israelis demonstrate greater interest in Turkish matters than religious ones. Complete indifference to this issue characterizes 28.1% of secular respondents, 30.4% of traditional observants, and 35% of religious respondents.
Meanwhile, "Turkey under Erdoğan's leadership implements a comprehensive influence strategy, utilizing diverse instruments of impact—from military presence and support for non-state actors to diplomatic initiatives and economic leverage," the analytical report notes.
Underestimated Danger
This lack of interest translates into risk underestimation. Only 38.9% of respondents consider the expansion of Turkish influence a serious threat to Israel's security, while 37.3% view it as a minor risk, and 7.8% do not consider it a threat at all. Notably, 16.1% found it difficult to answer this question.
Marked differences emerge between sectors: among Jewish Israelis, 42.3% consider expanded Turkish influence a serious danger, compared to only 20.8% among Arab citizens. The same trend appears in other indicators: among Israeli Arabs, 18.2% see no threat at all (versus 5.7% among Jews), while 25.8% are uncertain (versus 14.3% among Jews).
What Concerns Israelis Most
The survey revealed a hierarchy of risks in public perception. Israelis consider Turkish support for anti-Israeli groups the most serious concern—noted by 56.7% of respondents. Sectoral differences are dramatic: 62.7% of Jews see this danger, compared to only 25.8% of Arabs.
Second is support for anti-Israeli positions in Muslim countries (46.4% overall, 51.7% among Jews, 18.2% among Arabs). One-third of respondents (37.8%) worry about support for Palestinian state recognition in the EU.
Influence on international diplomacy was noted by 36.2% of respondents, while Israel's geopolitical isolation concerned 24.7%. Characteristically, 11.6% of Jews believe Turkish policy has no impact on Israel at all (this figure reaches 29.6% among Arabs).
Jerusalem as a Red Line
Respondents react particularly sharply to Turkish leadership statements about "returning Jerusalem to the Ottoman historical fold." Half of respondents (49.6%) consider this a direct threat to Israel, while one-third (33.1%) view it as internal Turkish rhetoric.
Sectoral differences persist: among Jews, 54.3% see direct danger, compared to 24.5% among Arabs. Arabs are 1.5 times more likely to consider this internal Turkish political rhetoric (45.3% of Arabs versus 30.7% of Jews).
The Russian Factor in Israeli-Turkish Confrontation
Questions about the role of Russian military presence in Syria revealed the greatest uncertainty in Israeli public opinion. 35.3% of respondents found it difficult to assess the impact of Russian bases on Israel's position in conflict with Turkey—the highest uncertainty indicator across all research questions.
Divided Opinion onRussian Influence
Among those who could provide an assessment, opinions split:
Negative Impact (40.6% of all respondents):
- 31.8% believe Russian bases "somewhat weaken" Israel's position
- 8.8% think they "definitely weaken" it
Positive Impact (24.2% of all respondents):
- 18.3% believe Russian presence "somewhat strengthens" Israeli positions
- 5.9% are certain it "definitely strengthens" them
Turkey's Instruments of Influence
Specialists identify six primary instruments Turkey uses to impact regional dynamics:
1. Military Presence in Syria — the most direct danger, including plans to deploy Turkish bases and S-400 air defense systems, potentially limiting Israeli Air Force freedom of action.
2. Hamas Support — according to analysts, represents a "direct and immediate high-level threat." Documents captured during the Gaza war confirmed plans to create a Hamas "Turkish base" in Istanbul.
3. Ideological Pressure — Erdoğan's anti-Israeli rhetoric, including comparisons to Nazi Germany and calls for an "Islamic alliance."
4. Economic Leverage — the trade embargo imposed in April 2024 led to 15-18% price increases in the construction industry.
5. Diplomatic Maneuvering — attempts to position Turkey as a regional mediator.
6. Ideological Networks — support for the Muslim Brotherhood movement and formation of a "Sunni axis" of influence.
Media Polarization Reflects Social Divisions
Analysis of 26 Israeli media outlets during April-May 2025 revealed fundamental differences in Turkish coverage:
Pro-coalition publications focus on security issues (84% of content), presenting Turkey as an "existential danger" and Erdoğan as an "Islamist dictator."
Pro-opposition media emphasize practical aspects—diplomacy and economics (68% of content)—viewing Turkey as a "complex but necessary partner."
"The Turkish threat is perceived heterogeneously—through the prism of internal political polarization in Israel," the study's authors conclude.
Underestimated Risks
Paradoxically, the most dangerous aspects of Turkish policy receive the least public attention. 44.2% of respondents consider media coverage of Turkish affairs insufficient ("not very good"—34.5%, "completely poor"—9.7%), with only 21.4% rating it positively. The high percentage of uncertain responses (34.5%) indicates many simply don't follow coverage of the topic.
Secular Israelis more frequently express dissatisfaction with coverage quality (47.6% versus 38% among religious respondents), potentially explaining their greater interest in Turkish issues.
Interviewed experts particularly highlight underestimated challenges:
- Cybersecurity and information operations
- Religious expansion in Israel's Arab sector
- Influence on regional negotiation processes
Strategic Ambivalence as Response
Despite serious challenges, complete relationship severance remains impossible. "Turkey and Israel are too interdependent to completely sever ties, but too ideologically divergent to fully restore them," specialists conclude.
The most likely scenario for coming years is "strategic ambivalence": public confrontation while maintaining closed communication channels.
Policy Recommendations
Researchers propose a multi-level approach:
- Differentiated responses to various challenge types
- Strengthening regional alliances with Greece, Cyprus, and Arab countries
- Maintaining technical communication channels through third countries
- Working with the Arab sector to reduce Turkish ideological influence
- Depoliticizing the "Turkish question" in internal discourse
Conclusions
The "Dor Moria" study reveals a dangerous gap between expert assessments and public perception of the Turkish challenge. While politicians and analysts warn about the comprehensive nature of Ankara's threat, most Israelis remain indifferent to this issue.
This paradox could have serious consequences for formulating adequate national strategy. Effective resistance to Turkish influence requires not only expert understanding but also broad public support, which is currently clearly lacking.