A classic defect in Israeli thinking is the assumption that the future will be a copy of the past.
So we have that 99% or more of those Israelis protesting and calling for Israel to accept Hamas’ terms and stop the war now so as to release the hosages assume that it will be child’s play for Israel to go back to war against Hamas once the hostages are released, regardless of what international guarantees Hamas may receive. (In this way, they try to counter the claims that giving in to Hamas' demands to stop the war and relinquish all IDF gains will lead to an endless round of wars and casualties as Hamas regroups and in which Hamas will try to repeat October 7.)
Some point to the situation in Lebanon, where, despite a ceasefire, we manage to continue attacking Hezbollah.
But Lebanon isn’t Gaza and Hamas also sees what’s going on there.
A few possibilities:
A United Nations Security Council resolution under Chapter VII with a form of “snapback” provision so that various serious international sanctions and even force can be imposed against Israel if we are seen as violating the ceasefire. Once in place, only a unanimous vote of the UNSC can void the Resolution.
Arab observer forces deployed in the Gaza Strip could serve not only as “human shields” but also as “tripwires” as a deterrent to Israel.
It also wouldn’t require that America has a president from the Democratic Party for us to face tremendous pressure to avoid action against Gaza. To put it delicately, the next Republican president may also have very different priorities.
Let’s not make the mistake of basing policy on wishful thinking.
We have already paid a dear price for such a mistake. Can we learn from our past errors?
Dr. Aaron Lerner heads IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations