In a recent interview, Mark Langfan, a New York-based attorney, real estate developer, and leading Israel advocate, provided his analysis on the current Middle Eastern landscape following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. He emphasized the dual nature of this event, presenting both significant opportunities and inherent dangers for Israel and the region.
Opportunities:
Langfan noted that the fall of Assad marks a potential fatal blow to Iran’s hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East. Drawing parallels with the historical Safavid Empire, he explained that Iran’s strategy aimed to create a Shiite-controlled land corridor spanning Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This corridor was central to Iran’s project of dominance over Sunni Arab populations under the guise of religious unity.
However, the collapse of Assad’s regime has disrupted this plan, breaking the land connection between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Langfan highlighted the significance of this development, stating, "It appears to be a fatal blow to the Iranian hegemonic project in the Middle East, an outcome of incalculable importance to Israel, the Arab world, and global stability."
Dangers:
Despite these gains, Langfan warned of uncertainties. He identified two main risks:
The Nature of Emerging Forces in Syria: It remains unclear whether the new power structures will align with moderate Islamic governance or revert to extremist ideologies reminiscent of ISIS. This uncertainty poses challenges for Israel and neighboring countries.
Turkey’s Role: Langfan expressed concern about Turkey’s potential to replace Iran as a regional hegemon. He pointed out that the Arab states are unlikely to welcome another controlling power, whether Iranian or Turkish.
Israel’s Role:
Langfan underscored Israel’s emerging role as a stabilizing force in the region. He described how Israel has historically protected Jordan and how its stability benefits Sunni Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and Gulf states. “Israel is the one force in the region that everyone can rely on for stability without fear of exploitation,” he said.
A New Regional Order:
Langfan also addressed the Abraham Accords and the shifting attitudes of Arab states toward Israel. He argued that pragmatic cooperation, rather than enmity, holds the key to regional stability. He noted, “Israel can deliver security, economic partnerships, and peace without the chaos that hegemonic powers like Iran or Turkey bring.”
In closing, Langfan critiqued past attempts by Israeli leaders to cede territory in exchange for peace. He described these strategies as "delusional" and praised the current geopolitical shifts as an opportunity to build a more secure and cooperative Middle East.
Langfan’s insights highlight the dynamic challenges and opportunities in the Middle East, with Israel playing a crucial role in shaping the region’s future stability.