"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach." Aldous Huxley
"Study history, study history. In history lies all the secrets of statecraft." Winston Churchill
“Speak softly, and carry a big stick; you will go far.” Theodore Roosevelt
Let none of the paragraphs that follow this opening paragraph be misconstrued as anything other than a euphoric endorsement of the reelection of Donald Trump on November 5, but allow me to start with a comment, and a prediction.
The comment: Donald Trump was the best American president the State of Israel has ever known. The prediction: Donald Trump will be the best American president that the State of Israel will ever know. And yet, despite the analysis, and the forecast, advocates of a safe, strong, and secure Israel should be prepared to be disappointed, nonetheless.
Huxley was not alone in offering his observation of history, and in fact, he can be counted among several other political and historical commentators who have said the same. Of the lessons of history, only this can be stated as a certainty: the lessons are never learned, not the way that they ought to serve as a guide for those events that follow. Indeed, as certain as the sunrise.
Several years ago, in September 2020, while supporters of Israel universally expressed their euphoria for another Trumpian victory – the Abraham Accords – this commentator was somewhat more reticent. The hesitation: the conditions of an agreement which was not a full peace, but rather a normalization of relations between nations that had been never been to war with Israel, but still previously seen to be adversaries. And yet, the generally accepted nomenclature that was employed more often than not – “peace” – was a spurious or dishonest euphemism that shrouded the misnomer.
My complaint: the Arab condition – non-negotiable – to offer, and accept, a normalization of relations between the so-called moderate Arab camp and Israel was predicated on a quid pro quo. A political and diplomatic condition that then-President Trump expected Israel to embrace wholeheartedly. And it did.
If peace is to come to the Middle East – even as a logical sequence to the aforementioned “normalization” – its only quid pro quo ought to be peace itself. But we are talking about the Middle East – a region which is governed by its own set of rules. And, for as long as Israel has been negotiating with its neighbors, those rules are conditioned by the following: Israel gives, and the Arabs get.
Donald Trump understood that as President #45. And he will expect as much as #47. It is the Art of the Deal – a mindset that we can readily understand if we simply take a peek into the 1987 book by the same name and credited to Trump. The world as he sees it – where everything is negotiable.
Donald Trump – perhaps even more than any other politician we have known – is concerned about his place in history. His legacy. Yes, even more than Benjamin Netanyahu – who might have actually written his own book.
Donald Trump is singularly determined to have that legacy – particularly as he envisions his second term – include twin elements that might not always be under his control. The first: that his tenure as president will be characterized by a world devoid of wars. A war? Not on my watch. And, as part of that determination, a Middle East where a normalization of relations will lead to peace.
Let’s get back to that quid pro quo.
Most people conveniently forget – Trump being among them – the US President had made a previous braggadocious promise as well. Peace with the Palestinian Arabs, a proposal formulated with son-in-law Jared Kushner, and later with Jason Greenblatt and David Friedman, even if the Palestinians were not willing to sit among the negotiators. Officially titled “Deal of the Century: Peace to Prosperity”, it was revealed officially alongside Bibi Netanyahu on January 28, 2020, after having been delayed for almost two years because of Arab intransigence. The same intransigence that always has the peace mediators (read here: Team Trump) looking to offer the Arabs a quid pro quo. Yes, Israel gives and the Arabs get.
The predictable offering was that Israel would suspend its intent, its expectation – its demand – that Israeli sovereignty be extended, with American support, to 30% of Judea and Samaria. The peace proposal – no longer that deal of a century – collapsed, but remarkably, and not surprisingly, even after Israel agreed (as it invariably does) to unrequited concessions. Forfeiting annexation was the quid to the quo that never followed.
For those who believed in Jewish history – as a logical harbinger of Jewish destiny – it was a ransom paid as political expedience.
As I wrote at the time: “One does not buy your enemies’ love by surrendering your history. Because in doing so, you tell the world that it might not be yours after all. What was that story about King Solomon and the baby…? Ask any seven-year old.”
And for those whose memories might already fail them – that is how the Abraham Accords came to replace a failed Trump initiative that was intended to be his signature foreign policy trophy. Of course, friends of Israel hailed the replacement agreement, and considered it a breakthrough to greater regional harmony. Including, they all hoped, Saudi Arabia. In reality, none of that would have happened if the Arab gulf states did not need Israel and the United States to serve as a shield against a manifest Iranian threat.
Four years later, we are back at it again. Little has changed. Well, except October 7. And every lesson of history that we ought to have learned something about. But the president-elect feels compelled to make good on his promise, and the Saudis would be that preeminent feather in his cap.
Understand, the Saudis are no fools. They have already upped the ante and started to leverage the American negotiators with whom they will sit in only a few months. They did that on November 11 at a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders convened in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman demanded that the global community "immediately halt the Israeli actions against our brothers in Palestine and Lebanon."
Mind you – he doesn’t really give a damn about the Palestinian Arabs. But, he understands the art of the deal.
Accusing the Israel's military operation in Gaza as "genocidal", he emphasized that Saudi Arabia "affirms its support for the brothers in Palestine and Lebanon to overcome the disastrous humanitarian consequences of the ongoing Israeli aggression." Translation to the Americans: Israeli concessions are now going to be more costly if you expect us to be part of your vision of a new Middle East. And he upped the ante once again on December 4, when French President Emanuel Macron and bin Salman announced they would co-chair a UN-sanctioned June 2025 conference for the establishment of a Palestinian state. What a shocker!
The only ones, it seems, who learn the lessons of history are the bad guys. Israel’s adversaries. It is certainly not the political decision-makers in the Western world. And Israel – after pretending for four years to have a friend in the White House, and who painstakingly tried to cover up that the Biden/Blinken Administration was in every sense its foe – will now need to be more accommodating to Trump’s grand design. Here, we hope that his own foreign policy decision-makers – a team more pro-Israel than a significant majority of Israel’s own Knesset – will not allow Trump to acquiesce to Arab demands. After all, he has always expressed a disdain for weak-kneed appeasers.
Which logically, and quite painfully, brings us to the most troubling concern of all. The 2-State delusion. In a normal rational world, October 7 ought to have buried that concept. Forever. It was the lesson of history that has not been learned by a majority of the world. The majority which hates Israel.
Nor did anyone with a pulse and an IQ really expect it to change the anti-Israel, and anti-Jewish, animus. It seems endemic to human and political nature. Witness the case of the most recent vote against Israel at the United Nations, including every single so-called ‘moderate’ Arab nation that offered Israel a normalization of relations that brought on the last chapter of euphoria – the Abraham Accords. Together, they and the others with whom we place our blind faith – demonized the Jewish State by a margin of 157 to 8 with 7 abstentions.
And you don’t need to look it up. We did: every single anti-Israel resolution has had the support of every single Arab nation, even those with whom we pretend to share a peace. They don’t even bother to abstain. What a wonderful quid pro quo for Israel suspending or forfeiting one’s heritage.
And we ask once again. Will the lessons of history and the secrets of statecraft ever be learned by a people and a nation that continues to beg to be recognized?
With every good reason to be euphoric, our advice to Donald Trump if he wants to be remembered as the great peacemaker: Do so with a stick; but do not speak softly. Not in the Middle East.
Meir Jolovitzis a past national executive director of the Zionist Organization of America, and formerly associated with the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies.