After a post-World War Two-post Holocaust 'hibernation', real, and often powerful, antisemitism is growing in America, to an extent that we post-war Baby Boomers 'never, never dreamed could happen in the USA.'
The 'Golden Era' of American Judaism, (1950-1990) where Jews openly dominated many areas of culture, business, science and academic life, is definitely over, and will never return. Today ,due to antisemitism, to be openly and proudly Jewish, and at the same to seek success in these fields, has become a very difficult act. Being openly Jewish in these fields today requires one to be constantly cautious and on the defensive about key elements in your social behavior, and it is hard to be highly productive and originally creative, when at the same time you have to be cautious and defensive, and when 'you are carrying around 'a monkey on your back' entitled "I am a proud Jew'.
The most likely reasons for the current emergence of American antisemitism
I do not have a definite sociological explanation why the 'Bear' of antisemitism has suddenly emerged from its 'cave of hibernation'. I will mention a few of possible causes.
One, suffering antisemitism is the norm of Jewish history. Most societies/civilizations, throughout human history, have 'placed Jews' in social roles and social positions which have caused other parts of the population to feel threatened and uncomfortable. Throughout human history, 'proud, successful Jews' get on people's nerves.
Two, throughout the 19th and 20th century antisemitism has been a prevalent part of both the political Left and the political Right (each in its own version). Today the increasingly dominant progressive Left is the main engine of antisemitism, but antisemitism on the Right is also strong.
Three, and this is the most relevant reason in America today, American society is becoming increasingly polarized and semi dysfunctional. America 'no longer believes in itself.' There is no longer a common American dream, a common American belief system that 80% of the population shares. Basic social institutions, such as stable families and communities, and organized religion, are becoming increasingly weakened. The number of individuals who feel isolated, vulnerable, lonely and depressed is increasing in an alarming rate.
And as the German Weimer Republic of the 1920's (which gave birth to the Nazi movement) teaches us, a political society which has lost its self-confidence, and in which 'the stable Center no longer holds' is the most fertile ground for antisemitism. The Jews are historically everyone's (Left and Right) most favorite and available 'scapegoat 'when a society begins to unravel.
So how will growing American antisemitism affect American Jewry?
I have a fairly simple answer to the above question.
1) There will be the 'disappearing Jew' response to antisemitism
American, self-identified Jews, for whom Jewish self-identity is not a highly prioritized factor in their overall self-identity, will simply downsize and weaken the Jewish factor in their overall self-identity till it almost disappears, because 'being Jewish' has now become such an onerous, social problem. Maintaining a Jewish identity is simply not worth the 'sweat', effort and even dangers that it may involve. Whether non-Jews will let them 'get away' with this 'disappearing act' is another question. (One hundred percent assimilation did not save German Jews.) According to my 'semi scientific' estimation close to a million self-identified Jews will try to cope with antisemitism using this 'disappearing Jew' method.
Most of these' disappearing Jews ' are today under 40, the product of two generations of family religious-ethnic intermarriage, and probably four generations removed from their first generation (Ellis Island, 1890 to 1920) ethnic origins. They self-report that they have very minimal, if any, connection to Jewish religious practice or beliefs.
2) There will be the 'reinvigorated-revved up' Jewish response to antisemitism
(For the sake of clarification, in this category I am referring to non-Orthodox practicing Jews)
And, in contrast, there seem to be an equal, and maybe larger number of Jews, who are responding to growing antisemitism by strengthening, redefining, and reinvigorating their Jewish self-identity.
My discussion here of the 'Reinvigorating- revved up Jew' is basically speculative and tentative, yet based on expertise intuition.
One, 'Reinvigorating Jews' are Jews who have 'suddenly' discovered that they have a positive 'Jewish back bone-spine' (derived from a wide spectrum of previous positive Jewish experiences in their lives) and they simply want to say to the anti-semites:
"We simply won't let you push us around. Who are you any way to tell me who I am? and accuse me of all this 'genocide-White privilege baloney-malarky'. I simply won't take this ---- any more "
Two, given a natural inner need to very personally better understand and defend this inner, instinctive reaction of Jewish 'patriotism' 'Reinvigorated Jews' have begun to learn and become attached to certain Jewish experiences that they had previously ignored or for which they had no personal need. One area may be to learn more about Jewish history. Probably a major area is been to learn more about the history of Israel, and the Israel-Arab conflict, from a pro-Israel perspective.
'Reinvigorated Jews' may show more interest, and maybe even do volunteer work, in Jewish organizations. And some may show an incremental attachment to Jewish religious experiences. An increase in Jewish religious experiences will probably be more for social than religious motives, and probably express itself in 'spirituality experiences' not specifically connected to 'observance'.
Three, I believe there is also a growing desire to "be with other Jews, to have a sense of rejoining the tribe" among 'Reinvigorated Jews'.They are saying to themselves 'certain friends, at work and in the community, 'have cancelled me out' so I have to now turn to my Jewish, ethnic base to find new companionship. 'Reinvigorated Jews' probably also feel a need to share with other Jews elements of the trauma they are now experiencing because of the sudden growth of antisemitism around them.
And here we encounter a tragedy. In 2024, the post- modern American Jew finds it much less natural to be an 'institution joiner".
In the 1950's to 1980's (when I was growing up) American Jews were still 'joiners'. If you did not belong -and pay dues- to a synagogue (three choices- Orthodox, Conservative, Reform), then you joined the Jewish Community Center, and if that was not your cup of tea, you joined a Jewish country club, and if that was not appealing, you joined a poker card or mahjong club. And if that was too demanding you probably you simply passed the time with a set group of Jewish friends on the park bench, 'kibbitzing' (and also probably playing some cards)
And this is our current Jewish social tragedy. The 'Reinvigorated Jew' of 2024 finds it very difficult to reestablish his Jewish self-identity by joining a Jewish social institution. All, all sociological data shows that in postmodern America people have highly reduced 'person to person' social contacts and experiences. We work at home, stream movies in our living room, shop for food and appliances over the internet, and socially interact over the internet. Data shows that most people have less than 12 hours of inter face, interpersonal social exchanges a week - including those at work. All social institutions, (religious, educations, recreational), report a sharp, even dramatic, decline in dues paying membership.
In brief, the 'Reinvigorated Jew' wants to cope with growing antisemitism by 'rejoining the Tribe' but it has become much harder to interpersonally 'find the Tribe'.
4) Orthodox Jews, have been surprised, and even shocked, by growing antisemitism, but they have much more 'social resources' in the long run to cope with the trauma growing antisemitism than other American Jewish sub-groups
Orthodox Jews who have grown up in Orthodox homes (particularly children of Holocaust survivors) subconsciously knew 'antisemitism' was going to return and 'hit them in the face one day'. But certainly the Modern Orthodox Jew who grew up in America consciously reassured himself that "America was not Europe, and here it won't happen'. But now that the antisemitism has arrived, most modern Orthodox Jews readily admit that we were just conveniently 'fooling ourselves' all along.
In comparison to non-Orthodox Jews, most Orthodox Jews have a strong sense of being a link in three thousand years of Jewish history, and know that the rage of antisemitism has been, and will continue to be, our G-d given historical fate. Most Orthodox Jews know that when all sociological excuses are set aside, ' G-d has made a nation that dwells alone'.
Orthodox Jews have incomparably more social resources with which to cope with renewed antisemitism. Over two thousand years of exile, we have 'already prepared' our own, 'autonomous-self enclosed' social institutions, religious, educational and recreational. We have our religious leaders, our religious faith, and religious teachings to guide us in our coping. And we have a strong sense of 'tribal bonding'.
The main threat that most Orthodox Jews now feel is in the area of employment and higher education. There is a real possibility that we will begin to feel antisemitism in the work place, and in our professional settings, and this will limit our professional opportunities and advancement, and thus also our financial status.
That is why I think that growing antisemitism will increase the number of Orthodox Jews showing an interest in considering the possibility of moving to Israel.
In brief, being an Orthodox Jew in the time of increasing antisemitism has both its 'advantages and disadvantages'. The main disadvantage is that you are easily identified as a Jew, you are an 'easy target', and your prescribed religious behavior can easily make others feel uncomfortable
The main advantage is that Orthodox Jews have immediately accessible our antisemitic trauma coping resources : such as communal bonding, religious faith and teachers and leaders, and an upbeat take on our historical tale of two thousands of suffering antisemitism, and the hope and exemplary bravery of our Jewish State of Israel.
A past and future sociological overlook of American Jewry
So, How many Jews were there in America before Oct. 7th ?
There seem to be three answers:
One, progressive sociologists, backed by the Reform movement, (using a very liberal pluralistic understanding of 'Jewish self-definition') want to claim that before Oct. 7th there were 7 million Jews in America and the number was growing.
Two, mainstream, liberal sociologists (using a stricter measure of Jewish self-definition) want to claim that there were 5-6 million Jews, before Oct. 7th and the number was declining.
Three, my own sociologically conservative analysis ( to be explained below) estimates that there were more likely only 4-5 million Jews, before Oct. 7th, and the number was declining.
So what explains the differences is these three sociological portraits.
The answer is fairly simple. As a conservative sociologist, I use a different criteria identifying 'who is Jewish' than progressive-liberal sociologists.
1) The progressive-liberal sociological 'definition of who is Jewish'
Progressive and liberal sociologists ideologically use the subjective-self-definition of defining who is a Jew. They will count as an 'identified Jew' anyone who says he is a Jew. This means they will count as a Jew someone who 1) states he is a Jew 2) most likely is not Jewish according to Jewish religious law 3) who has a weak ethnic connection with the Jewish people, probably the first and second offspring of intermarriage 4) may have no ethnic connection to the Jewish people, but is a non-Jew who has been attracted to social cultural aspects of Jewish culture, 5) and states that the most significant aspects of Judaism that he find meaningful may be reading a Jewish book, watching an Israeli film , Jewish culinary, Jewish humor, Jewish historic sites when touring, participating in Jewish social media sites and following events in Israel.( This analysis is based on the highly respected PEW 2020 study of American Jewry)
I estimate the Jewish factors identified above are a minor, and not a major, prioritized element in the respondent's overall self-identity.
Given the minor, weak role of such Jewish activities in their overall self-identity I define these Jews as 1)nominal-fringe Jews, , or 2) for those having no ethnic connection to Judaism, I term them 'fellow traveler ', 'transient-Jewish life style', 'mixed multitude' Jews.
The PEW 2020 study of American Jewry estimates that at least 40% of American Jews -as defined in their study'- can thus be defined as 'nominal-fringe' or 'fellow traveler' Jews (my terminology). And they number between two to two and a half million Jews .
The Jewish community can count 'nominal' and transient' Jews as Jews. That is their business, and they can 'run their business as they want'.
However, I, as a conservative sociologist, want to emphasize that 'nominal' and 'transient' Jews will most likely Not play a significant role in determining the 'quantity and quality of Jewish life' in post Oct. 7th America. They will not determine the degree to which Jewish life will be creative and spiritually meaningful. They will play a negligible role in determining the survival and flourishing of Jewish America. Most important they are the Jews who most likely will cope with raging antisemitism by becoming the 'disappearing Jew' described above.
2) The conservative sociological definition of 'who is a Jew' and its implications for post Oct. 7th American Jewish survival
As a conservative sociologist I am interested in identifying the Jews for whom their Jewish activities are a major element in defining the quality and meaningfulness of their life-self identity.
I think these Jews can be divided into two categories. One, Orthodox Jews, who now are close to 700-800 thousand Jews, and likely to reach a million in ten years.
And two, 'activist Jews'- who I define as any self-defined Jew who spends a significant amount of time in a month doing Jewish-based activities that add important meaning to is life. My definition of 'Jewish activity' is very open and pluralistic (but does not include anti-Zionism), and includes activists in the Reform movement, Jewish social activist movements, Jewish cultural activities, and also Jews who are not Jewish according to Jewish religious law. If activism in Jewish community/spiritual life is important to them, that is what defines them as a Jew.
I roughly estimate that there are one and a half to two million American Jews who fit this category. The future survival and flourishing of the American Jewish community depends on them, and on Orthodox Jewry.
They are the Jews who I termed have been 'Reinvigorated-revved up' in their Jewish identity by coping with the attacks of a growing antisemitism.
Summary: American Jewry has entered the stage of Embattlement
The "Goden Age" of American Jewry is long over. After Oct 7th Jewish America has entered the "Age of Embattlement", desperately fighting to remain intact, relevant, spiritual, creative and productive.
Jewish America will succeed in this crisis of embattlement. It will survive and flourish but in another twenty years the face of American Jewry will look very different.
American Jewry is in a stage of embattlement due to 1) the fact that its elderly population, possessing a strong Jewish identity, is rapidly dying, 2) close to 80% of young Jews intermarry 3) Jews under 40 are reluctant to marry and be parents 4) Thus, American Jewry has a high negative, fertility, and elderly Jews are no being replaced by young Jews.
And now all these negative challenges are being stoked by the growing fire of real antisemitism. The 'nominal' and transient-fellow traveler' Jews described above will most likely disappear. Coping with real antisemitism will not be worth their struggle. This will reduce the self-identified American Jewish population by a million and a half.
On the other hand, Orthodox and 'activist Jews' will succeed in their battle to overcome antisemitism, and are likely to create a renewed , different American Jewish social culture, that may be be 'less ethnic-and more Jewish' in its cultural content. Today's Chabad movement is an example of 'cooperation' in 'promoting Jewish survival' between the Orthodox and activist Jewish communities.
Orthodox Jewry will rapidly grow in numbers and in its social strength, and in twenty years Orthodox Jewry will probably between 25- 30% of active Jewry.
In twenty years, the 'real' American Jewish population will be significantly smaller, around four million (again significantly helped by the positive Orthodox birth rate)
In brief, raging, ongoing antisemitism is going to be a major force in changing the numbers and character of American Jewry over the next twenty years, for bad, and for 'good'.