The UK Statistics Authority has been urged to review the Palestinian Casualty figures in the Gaza War after several analyses indicated that the figures have been fabricated.
UKLFI Charitable Trust (“UKLFI CT”) has written to Sir Robert Chote, Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, inviting it to assess the quality of the Palestinian casualty statistics. These statistics are produced by the Hamas controlled Ministry of Health, and then circulated by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) as well as other UN bodies.
Gaza fatalities Oct-Nov 2023
Several analyses show that the Hamas produced figures have been fabricated, regarding both the totals and the breakdowns into men, women and children.[1]
UKLFI CT is concerned that these unreliable statistics are invoked and relied upon to support allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law and genocide by Israel.
Jonathan Turner, chief executive of UKLFI commented: “Credence given to these allegations is fuelling antisemitism on a major scale and is also liable to lead to incorrect decisions by public authorities on important issues.”
The Palestinian statistics are also deployed in a way that implies wrongly that all the Palestinian Arabs killed were civilians, as there is no reference to the number of Palestinian Arab combatants killed. The ratio of civilians to combatants killed is particularly relevant when assessing the proportionality of Israeli military actions and hence whether they are likely to have violated international humanitarian law.
The Israel Defence Forces estimated that 13,000 Palestinian Arab combatants had been killed by the end of February 2024. This indicates a ratio of civilian to combatant deaths of less than 1.5:1, even if the apparently fabricated total figures produced by the Gaza Health Ministry are used. This ratio is much lower than the usual ratio of civilian to combatant casualties in urban warfare, as indicated by a Report by the UN Secretary General which found that in urban armed conflicts worldwide in 2021, 89% of the casualties were civilians.
Furthermore, the Gaza Ministry of Health statistics do not distinguish the many Palestinians killed by Palestinian munitions (such as their own rockets that fall short in the Gaza Strip, as well as ground fire and explosive devices). These are included in the total deaths that are attributed to Israel.
Mr Turner wrote in the letter to Sir Robert Chote: “There is a compelling public interest in an official assessment of the quality of the casualty statistics produced by the Gaza Health Ministry and how they are deployed. We believe that the UK Statistics Authority has power to conduct such an assessment pursuant to section 22 of the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007. We urge that it be carried as quickly as possible to avert further damage to community cohesion and the risk of incorrect decisions that may have a serious impact on national and international security.”
[1] “How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers” by Prof Abraham Wyner https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers#
Statistically Impossible: A Critical Analysis of Hamas’s Women and Children Casualty Figures” by Profs Tom Simpson, Lewi Stone and Gregory Rose: https://fathomjournal.org/statistically-impossible-a-critical-analysis-of-hamass-women-and-children-casualty-figures/
“Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable” by Gabriel Epstein https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gaza-fatality-data-has-become-completely-unreliable
“How Hamas Manipulates Gaza Fatality Numbers: Examining the Male Undercount and Other Problems” by Gabriel Epstein https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-hamas-manipulates-gaza-fatality-numbers-examining-male-undercount-and-other
“The numbers of dead in Gaza don’t add up – and there is no easy explanation” by Mark Zlochin https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/unrwa-staff-death-toll-gaza-israel-hamas-war-data/
“Close review of Gaza casualty figures reported by UNOCHA based on daily Hamas ‘Ministry of Health’ numbers proves they are falsified” by Salo Aizenberg https://twitter.com/aizenberg55?lang=en-GB
Since the letter was sent, a further analysis by Mark Zlochin has been published at https://twitter.com/MarkZlochin/status/1777057066600763852