At first glance, Israel appears to have no choice but to buckle under US pressure. After all she needs the resupply of munitions and the protection of the US veto at the UNSC.
The NYT reports The U.S. wants Israel to use elite forces to rescue hostages and kill Hamas leaders.
“Mr. Biden wants Israel to switch to more precise tactics within three weeks, or soon thereafter. The officials asked for anonymity to discuss the president’s thinking.
“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”
But I submit they do have a choice. Time is on her side. Let us assume that Israel switches to the tactics demanded by Biden but takes her time in finishing off Hamas. In the meantime, Israel should agree to nothing. She should refuse to discuss the day after and she shouldn't agree to a ceasefire.
If so, it is Biden who is left with few choices. Since Israel is abiding by Biden's demands but slow walking the war, Biden has no option but to wait for the destruction of Hamas however long it takes. The destruction of Hamas is central to Biden's plans to advance the Two-State Solution. Since Israel would be following Biden's demands, Biden would have to continue to veto any calls for a ceasefire.
To my mind, Biden would be stymied. His dreams of advancing the TSS on the back of the Gaza War or reforming the PA would be put on hold until Hamas is destroyed which could take a year particularly if Israel takes it real slow in the name of protecting her soldiers.
Thus, all Biden's plans would be for naught. He would find himself in six months in the election season which will cause him to restrain himself, not Israel. Also, Israel could look forward to discussing the day after with a Trump or other administration.
On the other hand, Caroline Glick reports:
“They (Biden admin) do not seek the eradication of Hamas and the return of the hostages. They seek the end of the war and the return of the hostages. And at the end of the war, they want to rebuild Gaza. They want to use the war’s end as a means to compel Israel into a “peace process.” The goal of that process is to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza, and Judea and Samaria, led by terrorists from the Palestinian Authority which, like Hamas, seeks the annihilation of the Jewish state.”
Assuming that is the case, Israel should certainly not agree to a ceasefire. Instead, she should follow Biden's advice:
“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”
In addition, following such tactics would reduce Israel's need for resupply and that would render her more immune to US pressure.
If Israel does not agree to a ceasefire, Gaza cannot be rebuilt and the Gazans can not return to their destroyed homes. They will be refugees or, at a minimum, displaced persons. Israel should not cooperate with rebuilding Gaza or humanitarian efforts. She can argue, rightly so, that Hamas is not yet destroyed.
Israel’s lack of cooperation would put the ball back in the court of the UN. It will be responsible for Gaza and the Gazans before the conflict is over. This will put them in a bind.
Wikipedia reports
On 26 February 2016, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2268 that demanded all parties to comply with the terms[4] of a U.S.-Russian deal on a "cessation of hostilities".[5] The cease-fire started on 27 February 2016 at 00:00 (Damascus time).[6] The ceasefire does not include attacks on UN-designated terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and the al-Nusra Front.[7][8]
During this time, Israel could demobilize much of her army and thus return her economy to normal. Of course, the IDF would remain on the northern border. Such a policy would further deter Hezbollah. It may even make it possible for many northern residents to return to their homes.
And she could search the world for munitions and set up munitions production in Israel. With every passing month, Israel would be stronger and Biden weaker.
In fact, the search has already begun. YNET recently reported:
“According to the report, the Defense Ministry is launching a crash program with Israel’s military industries and major industrialists to make Israel independent in everything related to ordnance. In the initial phase, Israel will begin producing bombs for its aircraft. Jerusalem also intends to expand its production of tank and artillery shells, as well as assault rifles and bullets. Separately, there is increased discussion regarding the establishment of a missile force as an independent arm of the IDF. The force would reduce reliance on the air force and develop more versatile, more easily defended missile launch platforms and massively expand Israel’s missile and drone arsenals.”
Nir Barkat, a potential successor to Netanyahu, recently said:
“It is unthinkable that we would endanger our soldiers, and send them exposed in all kinds of buildings, without having bombed them beforehand.
“Surrendering to any external pressure, even if it is from our best friends, is a grave mistake for which we pay heavy prices.
“Our role as the government of Israel is, first and foremost, to take care of the vital interests of the State of Israel.”
“You must not give up because of any pressure.”
Netanyahu said, on the morning of Dec 24th,
"Last night, I spoke again with President Biden. I appreciate the steadfast US position – which supports our war effort – in the UN Security Council. I told President Biden yesterday that we will fight until absolute victory – however long that takes. The US understands this," he said.
He dismissed reports that the Biden Administration has been handicapping Israel's efforts to prosecute the war: "I have seen erroneous reports to the effect that the US prevented, and is preventing, us from operational actions in the region; this is incorrect. Israel is a sovereign state. Our decisions in the war are based on our operational considerations, and I will not expand further. They are not dictated by external pressure. The decision on how to use our forces is an independent decision of the IDF and nobody else."
Almost all of Israel agrees.
And Edward Luttwak, a strategist and historian known for his works on grand strategy, geoeconomics, military history, and international relations. wrote Why Israel can’t accept a ceasefire
“But the unavoidable reality is that Israel cannot end its offensive, nor even accept protracted ceasefires in exchange for hostages.”
There you have it, Israel, hang tight.
Ted Belman is a retired attorney and the editor of Israpundit. He made aliya in 2009 and is now living in Jerusalem