Many years ago, on November 15, 2006, I sent President Vladimir Putin of Russia a lengthy letter with a copy of my 2006 english article “Iran: the Fourth Reichastan,” translated into Russian.
Two years later, in November 2008, an avuncular and most-pleasant Russian man by the name of Lt Col. Andrey N. Fedorov from the Russian New York UN mission arrived, unannounced, at my New York apartment’s doorstep. Lt Col. Fedorov flashed his Russian UN Mission picture ID, and gave me his business card that labeled him as “Second Secretary” to the UN military staff committee. With a copy of my letter to President Putin in his hand, LtCol. Fedorov asked me if I was the person who had sent the letter to President Putin, and who had also written the attached article. I said yes.
Lt Col. Fedorov, then, politely asked me if he could come in, and talk to me about my letter and article. I, of course, welcomed him in. I first exchanged some introductory pleasantries with my 3d map of Israel. Then, I quickly pivoted to the 4th Reichastan’s article’s Israel’s destruction/Middle East collapse Maps, and point-blankedly asked Lt Col. Fedorov, “Does Russia really want, to its immediate contiguous south, an Iran to take over the Shi’te Iraq, become nuclear-armed, and run the table on the Gulf states controlling 60% of the world’s oil supply, and to threaten all of Russia’s Muslim majority southern republics, and then, Russia itself?”
Putin’s emissary reflexively blurted out, “Of course not!” Well, almost 20 years later, President Putin is now doing almost everything possible, it seems, to create a nuclear-armed Iranian Shi’ite Fourth Reichastan Imanate on Russia’s southern flank that will soon pose an existential threat to core-Mother Russia itself.
Unfortunately, President Putin appears to be repeating Stalin’s existential 1939 mistake of partnering with and enabling Hitler to invade and destroy Poland, which primed Hitler’s Nazi Army to be able to invade the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa in 1941. Today, by analogy, by Putin’s 2023 partnering with and enabling the Iranian/Hezbollah/Hamas axis to invade and try to destroy Israel, Putin is priming Iran to be able to invade mainland/heartland Russia, in perhaps not 2 years but in 20.
Not surprisingly, on August 20, 2019, FM Lavrov rationalized that the short-term 1939 Molotov/Ribbentrop “Non-Aggression” Pact was necessary for Russia’s long-term 1939 survival. On August 20, 2019, FM Lavrov stated:“In these circumstances(I.e. facing a Nazi Wehrmacht in August 1939), the Soviet Union had to go it alone to ensure its national security and sign a non-aggression pact with Germany. This forced move made it possible to better prepare for the coming war with the aggressor. Today, it is worth reminding everyone that our country made a decisive contribution to defeating the Hitler war machine and liberating Europe and the world from Nazism. Had the efforts been joined in the pre-war period, the many victims could have been avoided.”
The 2019 FM Lavrov appears to be rationalizing Stalin’s catastrophic 1939 Nazi strategic mistake only to explain the 2023 FM Larvov’s suicidal teeing-up of Putin’s catastrophic 2023 Iranian-axis strategic mistake.
A priori, I agree with FM Lavrov that “in the pre-war period,” the West totally appeased and empowered Hitler’s 3rd Reich with its idiotic 1938 Munich Pact mistake, where Russia reasonably felt unilaterally exposed. I will also admit that today, the West is totally appeasing and empowering the proto-Iranian 4th Reichastan by its awashing Iran with tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars. But, as the adage goes, “Two wrongs don’t make a right!” In 1938/1939, the two idiotic strategies of the West and the USSR to Nazi Germany didn’t make for one intelligent strategy. It led to a catastrophic world war and a 1941 Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union motherland.
Today, the two idiotic strategies of the West and Russia both appeasing and slobbering over Iran, doesn't make one intelligent strategy. It makes for a future world war and a catastrophic 2045 Iranian invasion of Mother Russia.
The current 2023 Russian President Putin seems to have forgotten what the 2007 Russian President Putin told the then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in 2007. In June 2010, the then-SecDef Gates testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that, “When I was in Moscow three years ago, then-President Putin told me that he considered Iran Russia’s greatest national security threat .…” . In reality, in 2023, nothing has changed from 2007, except that if Iran soon accedes to a nuclear weapon, Iran will be “Russia’s greatest national security threat” only fully-armed with an arsenal of nuclear bombs.
For, as my Middle East collapse maps I showed LtCol. Fedorov in 2008, if Iran destroys Israel, Iran would soon form a Trans-Levant-to-Persian Gulf Imanate.
Since, all of the Middle East oil is under the Shi’ite majority areas of eastern Iraq and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will have no chance to reap any of the Black Gold Triangle’s crude oil windfall.
With all the Saudi, Gulf, and Iraqi oil reserves under its command, Iran will turn O-PEC into Iran-PEC, and Russia will only just begin to economically suffer from Putin’s catastrophic mistake of enabling an Iranian Shi’ite super-monster.
But that will be just the beginning of Russia’s slow death at the hands of its enabled Iranian Fourth Reichastan. Russia’s entire south is dominated by Sunni Muslim majority republics. The areas in Russia where Islam is the largest religion, and Islam makes up the majority are in Tatarstan(50%), Bashkortostan(60%), Dagestan(90%), Chechnya(>60%), Ingushetia(90%), Kabaradino-Balkaria(90%), and Karachay-Cherkessia(50-90%).
With 60% of the world’s oil reserves under its belt, Iran’s Fourth Reichastan will soon co-op Russia’s southern-belt 90% Sunni/10% Shi’ite Islamic population into a 100% Shi’ite population, and then into a radicalized 100% Shi’ite population. In 2006, all the pundits said the Sunni Hamas would never be an Iranian Shi’ite proxy. LOL. If Russia is relying on its Sunni Muslim population to somehow act as a bulwark against the Shi’ite Iran, Putin should re-read the story of the Trojan Horse.
Russia will, one-day, wake up to find its Sunni “Maginot” Southern belt Defense Line has overnight become a nuclear-armed Iran’s Offensive Attack force inside of Russia’s defense line.
A recent article about President Putin was described as “thinking decades ahead.” To me, President Putin doesn’t appear to be “thinking ahead,” instead he is “thinking behind,” and repeating Stalin’s mistake of 64 years ago. President Putin should sue for a meaningful ceasefire and peace in Ukraine; break its ugly pairing with Iran; slowly disconnect from China; and get back to a modus vivendi with the West. A pan-Islamic nuclear-armed Iranian 4th Reichastan is the last thing Russia should want.