It is obvious, Hezbollah is baiting Israel and daring it to attack to justify a war. As usual Nasrallah is breathing fire and brimstone and threats of every kind flow like water. So the question is why would Nasrallah be doing so and why now? The further question is what is Iran actually up to in encouraging Nasrallah?
Nasrallah has on a previous occasion, which led to the Second Lebanon War in 2006, been his arrogant and cocksure self. As a result of the war, unprepared as Israel was at the time, he lost and admitted that if he had known what Israel’s response would be, he, meaning Hezbollah, would never have kidnapped Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
Now Nasrallah appears to be suffering from memory loss and has reverted back to typical Arab bravado and boasts of winning the war. Let us not forget that Nasrallah and Hezbollah lost some ground in the last Lebanon election and much of his bluster is to sell himself as the true champion and defender of Lebanon. How convenient to have Israel on his doorstep.
We have to wonder, what raison d’etre does Hezbollah have other than Israel? For its members, it could be a wonderful, if a short term career playing macho boys and men’s games, and throughout the process, no one has to work, create anything or in real terms, create anything really worthwhile. Of course sex inevitably plays a part, particularly in their society as the more macho, the more you can attract the opposite sex and as there are no restrictions as to how many women you can have, life in a militaristic terrorist organisation definitely has its perks in its members' mindset. Not a great career though, which comes with built in obsolescence.
For Nasrallah and his cohorts, it has so far been a life of luxury, kudos and ease. They are never ever at the forefront.
Before we continue with Nasrallah, let us try and understand what Iran is trying to achieve by encouraging Nasrallah. It is apparent that Israel faces a potential multi-front war. So, whilst Iran is preparing and wonders what Israel has up its sleeve, Iran gets Israel into a war with Hezbollah where it can observe Israel’s tactics, assess its weapons, use up its weapons, take attention off what Iran is doing and sacrifice Arabs instead of its own people, which they will keep in reserve. The Arabs, of course, are easy to use, abuse and motivate. Just hang an Israeli flag in front of an Arab “bull”.
Iran will fight Israel to the last Arab.
I am sure Iran is factoring in that the USA is heavily committed to the Ukraine and is also on a standby for Taiwan and North Korea. In addition, Biden’s regime has depleted its weapons stock in Israel which was meant for Israel’s and its own use in the event of a war in the Middle East. Let us also not forget that genius Biden sold a vast proportion of the USA’s strategic oil reserves to, of all people, China. I wonder if the kickbacks he got included that as well?
I don’t doubt for one nano-second that both Nasrallah and Iran actually don’t care how many of their own people’s lives are lost, as long as it is not theirs. Nasrallah has been hiding in a bunker ever since the Second Lebanon War and will continue to do so or quickly run to hide in Iran, whilst his troops and people face what is guaranteed to be Israel’s wrath, and wrath it will be.
Israel has clearly stated that it will flatten southern Lebanon and civilians will not and cannot be spared as many of Hezbollah’s 160,000 missiles and rockets are hidden in and amongst the civilian homes. We can only guess at Israel’s plans and tactics, but Hezbollah will be substantially destroyed.
At this time, whilst Iran sits in the background, sends advisors and weapons, its other surrogates, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza will join the war. Further south the Houthis in Yemen might also fire missiles, but I doubt it as it is geographically too close to Iran and would bring Iran into the war. The internal Palestinian Arab fifth column terrorists will obviously get involved and this time Jenin will not be let off as lightly as it was recently where no civilians were harmed, nor will Nablus and any other area where they raise their heads.
Israel will have its hands full and not get off unscathed. The war will have to be swift and quick, as a drawn out war is not in Israel’s interests both from an ammunition perspective and an economic perspective, and who knows what Biden and his Obamaniks will or won’t do to support Israel. As Biden in one of his less lucid moments recently let on, the US is running out of certain artillery ammunition and is heavily at present committed to Ukraine. For all its advanced weaponry, the USA’s military industrial complex is not geared up for war production.
In the 2023 Military Strength Ranking, Iran is ranked 17 and Israel 18 (https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php). Egypt is ranked 14 and Syria 64.
There is always wisdom in taking out a potential dangerous adversary sooner than later. In my opinion Arafat should have been assassinated years before he grew in stature. I remember hearing it was Israel’s view that the devil you know is better than what might follow. That was a mistake indeed as the devil grew into an even bigger and more dangerous devil.
Similarly this applies and applied to Iran. Taking Iran out in its early days would have been much easier before its weapons, drones and nuclear developments. Before the nefarious and duplicitous Obama decided on his dishonest and dangerous policy to abandon all the USA’s Middle East allies, throw them under the bus in favour of Iran because he thought the Arabs incapable of destroying Israel, but Iran had the potential to do so. I eagerly await historians to wake up and finally say so without fear.
Since Obama’s Congress unratified JCPOA agreement, Iran has been an exporter of its arms, missiles, drones et al not just to its surrogates, but also to Russia. In the process it has strengthened itself enormously with allying with Russia and China and obviously receiving nuclear and other knowhow and technology in return. While sanctions have hurt Iran, they have not succeeded in completely isolating her. Then we have the constant threat of the Biden regime’s attempts to reinstate the JCPOA agreement, with Iran benefitting enormously for probably nothing in return except a piece of paper, “with his signature on it as well as mine”, ala Neville Chamberlain, and Chamberlain, unlike Biden, didn’t suffer from dementia, but was just as stupid.
Which brings to mind the obvious Israeli decision not to supply arms to the Ukraine. Already American arms supplied to Ukraine have found their way into the hands of the Mexican cartels. All Israel needs is for its unique technology to be supplied surreptitiously to our enemies and captured by Russia, reverse engineered and sent on to Iran to copy and find antidotes for. This is in addition to having a fragile agreement with Russia who controls Syrian airspace both with aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles.
Iran’s strategy has been to completely surround Israel with its surrogates. In the north there is Hezbollah and a smattering of Hamas in Lebanon. In Syria there is the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iran. In Gaza we have Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In Yemen the Houthis with long range Iranian missiles. Iran has ships in the Red Sea and has armed merchant vessels which are stationed throughout the oceans. Reminds me of the Q-ships or Q-boats of WWII, which were decoy vessels, special service ships, or mystery ships and were heavily armed merchant ships with concealed weaponry. In Iran’s case, missiles. After all of this, there is Iran itself and all its weaponry and missiles.
I think it is possible that King Abdullah of Jordan might erroneously emulate his father, King Hussein’s foolish mistake and if he believes Iran and its surrogates are winning, might join to share in the spoils. I am not sure about Egypt, but who knows? Egypt, like Saudi Arabia, may fear Iran’s Shi’ite agenda and hegemony.
Of course Iran’s ambitions stretch far wider and further than Israel. They stretch to not only to dominating the Islamic world, after all the Shi’ites have been the very junior “partner” in Islam for 1,400 years. Their military strength has the potential to change that. As has always been the ambition of Islam, they wish to dominate the world and if Israel does not stop them, they will move on. Europe and Western Culture is already on its way and possibly beyond saving. Iran already has a presence in South America. Think of the barbarians conquering Rome and the consequences.
Getting back to a potential and probable war with Hezbollah, it is not for Nasrallah to decide when there will be a war, but for Israel to do so, and Israel will choose its time, place and method. Nasrallah’s taunts, baiting, lies etc, Israel can cope with. Sadly, Israel’s internal strife encourages its enemies, who do not realise that when it comes to a war, Israelis will stand as one. It would do Israel a great favour if it’s irresponsible political left ceased their coup attempt and settled down.
In addition, surrounded as it is, and in a war, Israel may be forced due to existential issues to make serious decisions as to how to deal and vanquish its enemies, but vanquish them it will.
David Hersch is Chairman of SAIPAC, the South African Israel Public Affairs Committee. Former chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (Cape Council) as well as a former national vice-chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (SAZF). He is also former member of the South Jewish Board of Deputies (Cape Council). Retired businessman and broadcaster.