Erfan Fard
Erfan Fard Courtesy

There is no decline in Iran’s malevolent and destructive activities across the Middle East. After the signing of the “Abraham Accord in 2020”, Iran’s aggression became “more obvious than ever”. Indisputably, Iran has increaseded its engagement in regional conflicts to the effect of, intensifying, prolonging, and deepening them. The very continuation of this regime is based on tensions and creating crisis.

Since the winter of 1979 with no spring in sight, the mullah’s thuggish regime in Iran increasingly expanded its radical Islamic doctrine around the globe using terrorism, infiltration, interference, invasion, involvement in conflicts, and bribery, as well as the smuggling of arms, ballistic missiles, and drugs.

Shortly after coming into power, the regime turned Iran into the world's largest and most powerful state sponsor of terrorism, and it has maintained this kind of aggressive behavior for 43 years.

Consistently and endlessly, Iran’s regime has carried out attacks on international shipping, regional infrastructure, and U.S allies in the region. Today, “Iran challenges regional security, stability, and peace as aggressively as at any time in recent history,” because Iran is not a rationally acting member in the international community.

The perception that “the Iranian regime would somehow become moderate enough to the point of no longer supporting such malignant activity,” has proven to be wrong. Bluntly put, this view was the false propaganda of pro-regime lobbies in Washington DC.

From the very beginning, terrorism was an inseparable part of this Islamic regime. Iran doubled down on their support for terrorist groups and continued racing ahead in developing ballistic missiles and its nuclear weapons program. The regime’s lethal and financial support to terrorist groups and proxies includes aid to Shia militants, such as Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, even an organic relation with ISIS.

Currently, the world is watching the melting down of this theocracy in Iran and the brutal suppression of anti-regime protesters. The demand of the protesters is clear; in polite terms, the young generation wants regime change in Iran.

One such ongoing conflict is particularly relevant to relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi-Iran cold war or proxy conflict is a major ongoing struggle in the Middle East. The battle between these two bitter rivals has swamped several different countries, including both regional and international actors. Crystally clear, Iran is a primary source of conflicts and chaos in the Middle East.

When the mullahs are gone, Syria will behave very differently, and terrorist organization like Hezbollah will be less hostile to Israel, which is added benefit for peace.
However, in the near future, a free Iran can cooperate with regional states with great potential. When the mullahs are gone, Syria will behave very differently, and terrorist organization like Hezbollah will be less hostile to Israel, which is added benefit for peace.

Consequently, Saudi Arabia and Israel will be clear and net winners in many aspects when the Islamic Republic is toppled. “Hamas and Hezbollah both will be wrecked. After regime change, a free Iran will not want nuclear bombs and will not export its missiles to Israel’s enemies.” Certainly, it is good news for the Iranian Revolution of 2022 that Israel and Saudi Arabia whole-heartedly support democracy in Iran.

Nowadays, the threat of terrorism around the globe is vastly different compared to what it was before 9/11. The U.S. counterterrorism community has appropriately and dramatically ramped up its intelligence capabilities. On 29 October 2022, Hussein Salami, the commander of IRGC, said: “Conspiracy in Iran is the result of US-UK-Israel-Saudi policies”. It is because of this mentality that democracy will only be accessible after the regime change in Iran.

In addition to his statement, Salami accused Saudi Arabia of funding hostile media which inflame the feelings of the Iranian youth. He suggested, those behind unrest in Iran cannot tolerate the Islamic Republic’s political and spiritual influence across the region, and have therefore resorted to inciting violence in the country. Salami warned “You cannot create anxiety for the Iranian nation, and yourself live in calm.” Similarly, the internal media of Iran reported, “The London-based Iran International TV, which has been playing a major role in provoking unrest in Iran, is funded by Saudi Arabia. The disinformation campaign by the network is also led by Israel.”

A week later, after Saudi Arabia was blamed for this so-called media war, the US and Saudi Arabia worried that Iran might be planning an attack on energy infrastructure in Middle East. Tentatively, Saudi Arabia revealed to the US intelligence information on a potential attack without mentioning any specifics. In turn, the National Security Council stated the U.S. is prepared to respond. The Saudis accurately commented regarding this matter, “Tehran wants to distract from local protests”.

Even though, the IRGC warns Saudi Arabia over Iran protest coverage, the reality of the situation is evident in the plethora of protester’s videos which display the viciousness of the pugnacious mullah’s regime in Tehran. Without a doubt, Saudi Arabia has revealed numerous fallacies in coverage by Persian-language news outlets, which pertain to tendencies such as censorship, the dirty game of reformist’s factionalism of the regime, and the existence of a guest’s blacklist and so on and so forth. These media only prove the real face of criminal mullahs. (Iran International TV and Persian Independent are prime examples run as absolute mafia systems.) There are no credible alternatives and the censorship in those media is stubbornly ongoing.

Protest for regime change in Iran
Protest for regime change in Iran Erfan Fard

For the mullah terror entity in Iran, there will be no shortage of seemingly plausible reasons to be worried. Riyadh and Jerusalem are anticipators of the regime change in Iran. Now that Netanyahu has been elected. it is highly likely that he will get his wish and be able to form a right-wing coalition. Notably, Biden congratulated Netanyahu on the election win on 7 November 2022. The US president told Israel’s presumed next president that “we’re brothers” and “we’ll make history together’ Who can say what will happen until the next message? It might be that a regime change in Iran will take place and they will ink additional historic peace deals in the tumultuous region.

Unquestionably, anyone with his wits about him will be more careful here. Tehran cannot change the security balance in the Persian Gulf and Iran has no capacity to solve its internal turmoil. As such, the mullahs have no military power to confront the improving ties between Israel and Arab governments in the Persian Gulf.

Most conspicuously, the internal affairs of Iran under the rule of corrupted mullahs have led to Iran’s turmoil and this famous revolution in 2022. Surely, the intelligence centers of Israel and Saudi Arabia -GIP or Mossad - know well that Salami is a psychopath, and his words were only a flippant bluff. when he exclaimed: “Whatever move you make against the Iranian nation, you will receive blows several times harder,”. The ongoing nationwide demonstrations serves as a great proof of mullah’s failure and mismanagement.

The brave young protesters did not comply when Salami yelled “Put aside the wickedness. Today is the last day of the riots. Do not come to the streets anymore. What more do you want from the lives of these people? ”. Regardless of the warning, students hit back at him and continued to protest in large numbers at several of Iran’s major universities on Sunday. Sooner or later, the will of change will triumph over the will of suppression. This young generation will succeed on the long road to democracy in Iran.

Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). He is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD