Donald Trump rallies Republican voters at Miami event ahead of midterms
Donald Trump rallies Republican voters at Miami event ahead of midterms REUTERS

Republicans are poised to win back the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with polls showing the party also slightly favored to win control of the Senate and a number of state governorships.

The GOP won 213 of the 435 seats in the lower chamber of Congress in 2020, leaving Republicans five seats short of a majority.

According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls, Republicans currently lead in the generic congressional vote by an average of 2.5 points, with 47.9% of respondents saying they would vote for a Republican candidate, compared to 45.4% who say they plan to back a Democrat.

Democrats held a narrow lead in the generic congressional ballot as recently as September 25th.

Based on partisan voter indexes of congressional districts, the GOP’s lead in the generic ballot is expected to yield them a net increase of anywhere from 14 to 48 seats in the House, leading the FiveThirtyEight website to forecast an 82% chance of Republicans retaking the House.

Republicans have a narrower edge in the Senate forecast, with FiveThirtyEight estimating a 54% chance Republicans win at least 51 seats, or a net pickup of one seat. The Senate is currently evenly divided, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as tie-breaker in the event of a 50-50 vote.

Of the eleven competitive Senate races, Republicans hold clear leads in five states: Florida, where Senator Marco Rubio leads challenger Val Demings by an average of 7.5 points according to the RCP average of polls, 51.0% to 43.5%; Ohio, with J.D. Vance leading by the same average margin against Tim Ryan; North Carolina, with Ted Budd leading Cheri Beasley by an average of 5.2 points, 49.8% to 44.6%; Wisconsin, where incumbent Senator Ron Johnson now holds an average lead of 2.8 points over Mandela Barnes, 49.2% to 46.4%; and Nevada, with Adam Laxalt besting the incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, by an average of 2.4 points, 47.3% to 44.9%.

Democrats, by comparison, lead in just two of the eleven battleground states: Colorado’s incumbent senator Michael Bennet, who leads Joe O’Dea by an average of 5.3 points; and incumbent Patty Murray from Washington leads Tiffany Smiley by an average of 3.0 points, 49.3% to 46.3%, though Smiley has enjoyed a late surge, cutting Murray’s lead down by 5.5 points since late October.

In the remaining four senate races – Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire – no candidate holds more than a 1.0 point lead.

Of the four closest senate races, only Pennsylvania is currently occupied by a Republican, further enhancing the GOP’s chances of reaching a majority.

In Georgia, where Republican Herschel Walker holds a razor-thin 0.4 point edge over Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, the outcome of what is expected to be a photo-finish race is further complicated by the state’s provision for a runoff should neither candidate secure 50% of the vote.

In that event, the Walker and Warnock would face off in a special vote in December.

Turning to governors’ races, Democrats are projected to flip two governor’s mansions, in Massachusetts and Maryland, but face serious challenges to six states currently controlled by Democrats: Wisconsin, Nevada, Oregon, Kansas, Michigan, and New York, where incumbent Kathy Hochul’s lead has plummeted from an average of 18 points in early September to 6.2 points.

The latest Trafalgar poll in New York shows the race in a dead heat, with Republican Lee Zeldin leading Hochul by a fraction of a point.

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden rallied their respective bases ahead of Tuesday's election, with Trump addressing voters in Miami, home turf of a potential 2024 Republican primary opponent, Governor Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who currently leads former governor Charlie Crist by an average of 11.5 points, is expected to cruise to victory Tuesday, though the margin of his win could shape the 2024 presidential race.

Alluding to the Florida governor's possible presidential aspirations, Trump mocked DeSantis at a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania Saturday evening, calling him "Ron DeSanctimonious,"