It is an unfortunate feature of the Israeli Palestinian conflict that reams of material is published to further an agenda. Therefore, when an entity such as the Rand Corporation goes out of its way to publish a 250 page report, one hoped that there would be some sort of innovative thought process or conclusion. Yet one must remain disappointed both with the methodology and the conclusions of the report, which claims both Israel and the Palestinians would gain tens of billions of dollars from a "Two State Solution."
Most disappointing of all was what the study - entitled "The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict" - did not say. Here are just a few examples.
Firstly, the first erroneous premise that the study is built on is conceiving of a homogenous “State of Palestine”. Quite apart from the geographical division (which is considerable), the best the report can manage is to acknowledge the existence of “internal factions” as a challenge to maintain social order. So let us be clear, the contention that the different elements of Palestinian society would be sufficiently stable to coalesce around a sovereign and non-belligerent Palestine is simply fallacious.
Secondly, consider the presence of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the PFLP, Fatah, the Al-Aksa Brigades, the PRC, not to mention ISIS in Gaza. Does anyone imagine that a “sovereign” Palestine is going to appease these groups? The personnel that are quoted and acknowledged in the study are not ideologues but solid professionals and academics. How could they have based their premise on such a fallacy?
Thirdly, the outcomes considered by the study was cast solely in terms of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, as if the surrounding geopolitics did not apply, and that “progress” in negotiations would serve as a panacea for which the money tree would suddenly yield miraculous billions. A sovereign “Palestine” would be the first collateral victim from an Iranian attack, whether directly or from one of its surrogates.
Fourthly, on the subject of the “peace dividend”, one does not need to be an economist to know that the endemic corruption that exists in Palestinian bureaucracy will see an improvement of certain bank accounts in Liechtenstein and the Cayman Islands. Yasser Arafat was a billionaire by the time of his death, as is Mahmoud Abbas. The international fund that was established in the wake of Operation Protective Edge remains underfunded and the mechanisms to deliver reconstruction remain mired in corruption.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the entire report failed to even countenance the one outcome which stands a chance of maintaining regional stability, human rights, and not descending into the carnage that characterises what used to be Iraq and Syria, and then leveraging that same much-needed investment in order to secure and consolidate it – annexing Judea and Samaria, providing for a Jewish majority and an Arab minority with full civil rights.