On Wednesday, January 21, 2015, US House Speaker, John Boehner extended an invitation to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) to come to the US and address a special joint session of the US Congress on the subject of the Iranian Nuclear Project.
The US President may be on the wrong path, but Netanyahu’s speech will not deflect its course.
Bibi accepted. How could he not? He does not support President Obama’s position on Iran. He does not believe that the Iranians are sincere about the peaceful part of their nuclear project. He believes that Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani is seeking to deceive the US, the remainder of the P5+1 countries and the rest of the world, by abandoning an immediate dash to the fabrication of an atomic bomb, postponing it to a future, just round the corner date, while rewarding Iran with lifting of the economic sanctions in return. He believes that as long as Iran is allowed to maintain its means for enriching Uranium, it remains a threshold nuclear power with the potential of becoming an actual nuclear power in a flash.
Netanyahu does not trust US intelligence to detect Iran’s final dash toward the bomb, in time to stop it. He realizes that the US Administration does not know what it does not know, and it will be markedly too late when the President gets wind of the truth. Accordingly, Bibi considers the upcoming agreement between Iran, the US and the rest of the P5+1 as bad and dangerous.
At the same time, The Israeli PM believes that a great speech to the joint session of Congress will boost his status in the polls, enhancing his chances for a definite victory in the Israeli elections, merely two weeks subsequently.
Nevertheless, as it turns out, John Boehner’s invitation to PM Benjamin Netanyahu was a politically motivated bidding. The speaker breached protocol by inviting a head of state without consulting with the president; in fact, going behind the President’s back, while passing over the congressional Democrats as well. He used Netanyahu as a pawn in his political maneuvering around the president and his Democratic party. To make things worse, he was planning on manipulating Netanyahu into becoming a pointed arrow, aimed at the butt of the president’s Iranian strategy, in an attempt to upset it.
Consequently, The White House has already declared that neither the president nor the secretary of state would meet with the Israeli PM during his visit in March. The Democratic Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi and many in her caucus have expressed dissatisfaction with John Boehner’s invitation and its timing. There is a chance that in their bid to display solidarity with the president, some congressional and Senate democrats may snub Netanyahu even though they are known to be strong supporters of Israel. Thus, Netanyahu’s effort to demonstrate a broad American support for his leadership, boosting his chances for an electoral victory back home, may actually backfire on him. His political opponents will make sure of that.
Should Netanyahu cancel his visit to the US in March, he will rub Boehner and some in his party the wrong way. Should he stay the course and deliver the promised speech, he will offend President Obama and some democratic reprentatives and senators. Bibi has stumbled on a no-win situation.
What should he do?
Regardless of whether or not Obama’s Iranian strategy is proper; regardless of whether or not Netanyahu will come to the US and speak to the joint session of Congress, Obama will proceed along his current negotiations path, hoping to reach, what he deems to be, a peaceful outcome to the Iranian problem. The US President may be on the wrong path, but Netanyahu’s speech will not deflect its course. It will only broaden the existing chasm between the Israeli PM and the American Administration. What’s more, Netanyahu’s speech may spread the rift to areas beyond the Iranian nuclear problem; it may even set off an emotional need for retribution by the White House.
It’s clear that in any no-win situation there is a path leading to a lose-less outcome. And in this case, a cancellation of Netanyahu’s visit to the US might be the optimal strategy under the circumstances. The Israeli PM should be able to excuse his “postponement” decision, referring to urgent security or domestic matters requiring his attention at home.
As much as I and many of us would love to see Bibi being admired by the American Leadership in Washington, it might be better for him to decline being manipulated into a non-lethal mosquito bite by the Republican leadership in Congress. This political maneuver is designed merely to provoke the president, devoid of attaining any genuine, meaningful fallout.
