Bashar Al Assad has been acting like a matador for more than ten months now: while the bull of revolution charges horns down against him, with thousands of moves he manages to avert the impeding and expected disaster of his bloody regime.
In order to survive, he has been using the arm of savagery in killing more than five thousand of his nationals.
Many have predicted that his pale and slender figure would soon give way to a rebels’ government.
And a few days ago, for the first time, the Arab world broke a taboo: Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani said that, after all, “in order to stop the killings, troops should be sent in”.
His stance has immediately triggered uncertain reactions, including that of the Arab League, which promised discussing the idea of an armed force in its a next meeting. But its former Secretary, Amr Mussa already says that it’s necessary to reflect and hold consultations. That means forever and ever.
It really seems very unlikely for the divided and weak Arab League to make a drastic move after its failed mission which obtained from Bashar only the ridiculous promise of an amnesty for political prisoners.
Each word from the Arab League sounds out of tune - certainly after the Tunisian mission member Anwar Malek walked away protesting for being used as a cover and ended up being accused by Delegation Head Qasem Suleimani of spending six days inside the hotel in "nice company", without ever setting his foot outside.
Qatar is playing its reckless game with heaps of money: in the past the Sheikh invested a lot in his relationship with Syria and it has been Bashar who outrageously decided to break it. Qatar tries to strike a balance between modernity and Islamism: Yusuf Al Qaradawi, the extreme Islamic leader, is a frequent guest; the Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani has greatly fomented the Libyan revolt, he’s in extremely good terms with the Muslim Brothers in Tunisia and in Syria, he’s the puppeteer of the uprisings through Al Jazeera but hosts a large American naval base.
In Syria, there’s an obtrusive presence that has prevented Assad from being ousted. Iran never abandons him. A recent visit by General Qasem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Iranian forces is evidence of the unabated supply of weapons and men. There are a lot of fierce armed Iranians and Lebanese Hizbullah in Syria.
And where you find Iran you can often find Russia, which doesn’t tolerate any interference against its friend Assad, nor against Iran.
The long-standing hegemonic design is turning to full circle.
Russian Vice President Dimitri Rogozin has just stated that an attack against Iran would be considered an attack against Russia. No, Assad is not alone: a Russian ship, the Chariot, left St Petersburg on December 9 and reached the Syrian coast after a stopover in Cyprus with a “dangerous load”.
China is friendly to Assad. Maliki’s Iraq is friendly too. Hizbullah’s Lebanon defends him.
The Arab league is uncertain and fragile. It doesn’t seem realistic it’s going to engage in anything anyway.
Assad’s army is still strong and the infamous Shabiha, the Alawite armed militias. are almost intact. Unfortunately, for the time being. only a bloody civil war is brewing.