The policy documents published over the last year by the Obama administration indicate that it believes in the efficacy of traditional Cold War deterrence as thremedy to the challenge of rogue states acquiring nuclear weapons. This doe not seem to be based on a sound strategic analysis but on the desire to project a purely defensive posture. Another assumption emerging from the administration’s policy statements is that the Iranian regime is “rational” and hence deterrable.

 It is argued that a nuclear Iran will be risk averse and that “the Iranians are a rational people” and are not “suicidal.” But the cultural propensity of a people toward “rationality” does not determine the behavior of their autocratic leadership. The claims by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he communicates with the Hidden Imam should be taken seriously and should be seen in the context of an ideology purportedly held by key elements within the IRGC and the Basij.

 We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East could be avoided in the wake of Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. The answer to this question seems to be clearly negative. Failure to prevent Iran from nearing the nuclear threshold will undoubtedly intensify the drive of other states in the region for nuclear weapons.

 How will a polynuclear Middle East function? It is nearly certain that it will not look like the latter years of the Cold War. The religious and political drivers that will determine nuclear decision-making in the countries of the region will preclude integration of many of the checks and balances which evolved between thesuperpowers in the Cold War era.

 The most powerful driver that has the potential to impel the region to nuclear war is religion. Both Sunni and Shiite traditions of Jihad view the willingness to challenge superior force as an exemplary deed. In Shiite Islam, this is augmented by the idealization of suffering and martyrdom.

 Given weak command and control structures in the region, nuclear weapons may filter down to quasi-states (such as Kurdistan or the Palestinian Authority), terrorist organizations, and rival ethnic groups for whom the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a hostile state would be an incentive to acquire at least a limited WMD capability.

 The countries of the region will probably be more predisposed than the Cold War protagonists to brandish their nuclear weapons not only rhetorically but through nuclear alerts or nuclear tests, leading to situations of multilateral nuclear escalation. However, such multilateral escalation will not be mitigated by Cold War-type hotlines and means of signaling, and the absence of a credible secondstrike capability may well strengthen the tendency to opt for a first strike.

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