Before delving into the question of what follows the death of the two-state solution, we must get a certificate of death. This may prove to be more difficult than getting a certificate of live birth for President Obama.
Everyone prefers to kick a dead horse than to acknowledge it is dead. The Arabs were against the creation of Israel in the first place. They opposed the Palestine Mandate, The Partition Plan. The Declaration of Independence by Israel and Resolution 242. In 1968 they decided at the Khartoum Conference on the three “no’s”; no recognition, no negotiation and no peace. Nevertheless both Egypt and Jordan broke with this policy and signed peace agreements with Israel. Anwar Sadat paid for this breach with his life.
Arafat had to accept Res 242 as the condition for entering the Oslo accords, He also had to agree to amend Fatah’s Charter which called for the destruction of Israel but never did amend it. The Hamas charter also calls for the destruction of Israel. So the PA is only paying lip service to Res 242 but has no intention of complying with it, The Arab League has yet to accept Res 242. Instead, at the Beirut Conference in 2002, it endorsed the Saudi Plan with certain amendments and called it the Arab Peace Initiative. Neither the Plan or the Initiative were published but a communiqué was issued. It demanded full withdrawal, a “just settlement” of the refugee problem and the creation of a “sovereign independent” state with East Jerusalem as its capital. In exchange, they would enter into a “peace agreement” and establish “normal relations” with Israel.
Whenever the Arabs talk about peace I am suspect, as peace in Islam is only achieved when Islam is dominant. Besides, Israel will never agree to all these demands. In effect they substituted these parameters for the ones in Res 242. By putting forward these demands, the Arabs have decided to wage war on Israel diplomatically. The peace process demanded by the Quartet (U.S., E.U., UN and Russia) buttressed by the Arab’s nebulous offer of peace, enables them to make demands on Israel and to force her compliance. It is not really about negotiating a settlement so much as it is about imposing a settlement. As times goes on, Israel’s wiggle room gets smaller and smaller.
So, though an ultimate agreement is not achievable because Israel won’t agree to the Arab terms and the Arabs won’t compromise on them, the Arabs still want to continue the process. For the U.S., it’s the only game in town. They are not prepared to pack their bags and go home or to change the paradigm. Better to go through the motions. The process is working to Israel’s disadvantage so why is Israel content to go along? So long as the prospect of a two-state solution is out there, Israel does not have to resist calls for bi-national state or for citizenship for the Palestinians. In the meantime, the Palestinians have their autonomy and Israel has its security, insofar as Judea and Samaria are concerned, and an undivided Jerusalem. While Israel would dearly love to sign a settlement deal to put an end to the deligitimation and demonizing, the price is too high. The status quo is better. But that doesn’t preclude putting facts on the ground. Israel must end the freeze and build housing in Jerusalem and the settlements with a vengeance.
Aside from strengthening Israel’s hold on Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, Israel is putting great pressure on the Palestinians to compromise. Due to such construction, time is no longer on the side of the Palestinians. That is why the Palestinians have suggested they would unilaterally declare a state or ask the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on all lands east of the ’67 borders. Were they to do so, it would be a game changer. Israel has said she wouldn’t allow it. It would end the peace process. There is talk in Israel of extending Israeli law to the major settlements presently under occupation law. The Israelis living in them would dearly love the change and it would affect the Arabs at all. Such a change would effectively make the settlements part of Israel. Another factor that argues for the status quo is that Israel is facing a well armed Hamas and Hezbollah and Iranian progress toward an atomic bomb.
In the next year there may well be war with Iran and Israel wants to have the US participate. This is not the time for dramatic concessions. Israel must know whether Iran will remain an enemy before determining what if any concessions to make. In the meantime the mayor of Jerusalem Nir Barkat intends to implement Jerusalem’s mbitious Master Plan presently being finalized. The Plan aims to reverse the current trend whereby Arabs are oving into Jerusalem to be on the West side of the fence and Jews are moving out The main reasons for this exodus are expensive housing, limited housing opportunities, scant employment opportunities, and relatively low salary levels. The ultimate goal is to have a demographic balance in the city of 60% Jews to 40% Arabs by 2-2-/ It is now 65:35 This is an urgent task for Israel. Its implementation will not be without international and domestic opposition. There are currently 300,000 Arabs living in Jerusalem. Reason enough to consider dividing the city.