Dr. Aaron Fine, the head of Israel's Tatzpit polling agency told Arutz-7 Sunday that 75% of the public refuses to take part in polls, rendering poll results nearly useless.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98406
There's a fairly well-established tradition in Israel. On election night, the kids get to stay up late and families huddle around their televisions waiting to hear Haim Yavin (or whoever) predictably pronounce the word ?ma?hapach?. In electoral jargon, that would mean an upset. The word is stronger in Hebrew and implies a revolutionary change.
The almost routine anticipation of a dramatic electoral turnabout may sound a bit far fetched for some of you, but in Israel, tumult is par for the course.
My favorite part of the televised episode is getting to watch all those pundits and pollsters with their sheepish little grins as they try to explain their failure in predicting the correct results. Dr. Mina Zemach from Dahaf does it best.
Now, the nation of Israel has no deficiency of smart numbers people. I imagine we have a glut of accountants, statisticians and demographers. At times, it seems that the entire country is caught-up in the spell cast by some obsessive compulsive people who toy day in and day out with figures and percentages.
For example, Peace Now is full of such individuals. They spend their days counting the number of houses, structures, people and progress in the Jewish communities outside of their headquarters which is located in the sovereign territory of Gush Shalom (which is located in a section of the Pink City which used to be known as Tel Aviv, until rose-colored glasses and ostrich feathers became fashionable). And then they devise a variety of practical ploys to thwart that growth. But it's a kind of an exercise in masochism (they?re into that) and frustration. Because no matter how hard they try, those numbers outside of their fair city keep increasing.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98101
So there must be other factors at play here that transcend the loaded polls, political ploys, and media deception employed by those who are intent on burying Zionism, Judaism and Eretz Yisrael.
Let?s face it, polling services, their clients, employees and the folks on the receiving end of the phone line are only human (or inhuman), and personal/political agendas are always a component.
So to be fair, let¹s consider that the margin of error in any Israeli poll ranges from a reasonable 4.4 to an outrageous 44 percent. In this way, the pollsters can always blame the results on a misplaced decimal point.
But there are other factors at play which should certainly be considered:
THE COUCH POTATO FACTOR: these are the people who say, ?yeah, sure I'll answer the pollster on the telephone, but it'll take a crane to lift me off of this recliner and drag me out to vote.?
THE SPOOK FACTOR: These are the right-wingers among us who are sure that their phones are tapped and that every call from a telemarketer to a pollster to their sister in-law is no doubt a shabak agent. Rule of thumb: when the phone rings, keep 'em guessing.
THE ELLEN'S HUSBAND FACTOR: A very funny guy (at least that's what he tells me) with a very Israeli sense of humor. He has come up with a variety of voting combinations made to perplex the most astute pollster. My personal favorite is his impersonation of the Meretz activist with 22 children from Mea Shearim (great Yiddish accent!).
Come to think of it, we haven't been called at all this year (which must also be factored in, as these pollsters are simply not calling the right people).
Perhaps the most baffling and unpredictable factor for anyone involved in the numbers game is... (thunder or drum roll, please)...
THE G-D FACTOR: This factor is so elusive that your average expert is completely unaware of it or, if cognizant of it, may go as far as to deny its relevance.
But those in the know, know that this is the ultimate factor and it is also the key as to why scientific polls and demographic studies taken in the Land of Israel are, more often than not, notoriously inaccurate and inapplicable.
So, as we?re hounded by the weekly figures and pie charts, remember that it?s the human factor in us that causes us to put a degree of faith in Arabic and Roman numerical systems.
And as the weeks before the vote decrease, and tensions increase, remember that man-made polling projections and our electoral system are as flawed as is man himself. Nevertheless, elections are indeed a vehicle for change and we are duty bound to vote and to try and effect change via a tiny slip of paper.
Remember that it is our hopes, prayers and actions which can flood the ballot box with light and miraculously translate into positive results. If that doesn?t relieve your anxiety, then remember Mina?s sheepish and defeated little grin - and it?s sure to make you laugh.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98406
There's a fairly well-established tradition in Israel. On election night, the kids get to stay up late and families huddle around their televisions waiting to hear Haim Yavin (or whoever) predictably pronounce the word ?ma?hapach?. In electoral jargon, that would mean an upset. The word is stronger in Hebrew and implies a revolutionary change.
The almost routine anticipation of a dramatic electoral turnabout may sound a bit far fetched for some of you, but in Israel, tumult is par for the course.
My favorite part of the televised episode is getting to watch all those pundits and pollsters with their sheepish little grins as they try to explain their failure in predicting the correct results. Dr. Mina Zemach from Dahaf does it best.
Now, the nation of Israel has no deficiency of smart numbers people. I imagine we have a glut of accountants, statisticians and demographers. At times, it seems that the entire country is caught-up in the spell cast by some obsessive compulsive people who toy day in and day out with figures and percentages.
For example, Peace Now is full of such individuals. They spend their days counting the number of houses, structures, people and progress in the Jewish communities outside of their headquarters which is located in the sovereign territory of Gush Shalom (which is located in a section of the Pink City which used to be known as Tel Aviv, until rose-colored glasses and ostrich feathers became fashionable). And then they devise a variety of practical ploys to thwart that growth. But it's a kind of an exercise in masochism (they?re into that) and frustration. Because no matter how hard they try, those numbers outside of their fair city keep increasing.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98101
So there must be other factors at play here that transcend the loaded polls, political ploys, and media deception employed by those who are intent on burying Zionism, Judaism and Eretz Yisrael.
Let?s face it, polling services, their clients, employees and the folks on the receiving end of the phone line are only human (or inhuman), and personal/political agendas are always a component.
So to be fair, let¹s consider that the margin of error in any Israeli poll ranges from a reasonable 4.4 to an outrageous 44 percent. In this way, the pollsters can always blame the results on a misplaced decimal point.
But there are other factors at play which should certainly be considered:
THE COUCH POTATO FACTOR: these are the people who say, ?yeah, sure I'll answer the pollster on the telephone, but it'll take a crane to lift me off of this recliner and drag me out to vote.?
THE SPOOK FACTOR: These are the right-wingers among us who are sure that their phones are tapped and that every call from a telemarketer to a pollster to their sister in-law is no doubt a shabak agent. Rule of thumb: when the phone rings, keep 'em guessing.
THE ELLEN'S HUSBAND FACTOR: A very funny guy (at least that's what he tells me) with a very Israeli sense of humor. He has come up with a variety of voting combinations made to perplex the most astute pollster. My personal favorite is his impersonation of the Meretz activist with 22 children from Mea Shearim (great Yiddish accent!).
Come to think of it, we haven't been called at all this year (which must also be factored in, as these pollsters are simply not calling the right people).
Perhaps the most baffling and unpredictable factor for anyone involved in the numbers game is... (thunder or drum roll, please)...
THE G-D FACTOR: This factor is so elusive that your average expert is completely unaware of it or, if cognizant of it, may go as far as to deny its relevance.
But those in the know, know that this is the ultimate factor and it is also the key as to why scientific polls and demographic studies taken in the Land of Israel are, more often than not, notoriously inaccurate and inapplicable.
So, as we?re hounded by the weekly figures and pie charts, remember that it?s the human factor in us that causes us to put a degree of faith in Arabic and Roman numerical systems.
And as the weeks before the vote decrease, and tensions increase, remember that man-made polling projections and our electoral system are as flawed as is man himself. Nevertheless, elections are indeed a vehicle for change and we are duty bound to vote and to try and effect change via a tiny slip of paper.
Remember that it is our hopes, prayers and actions which can flood the ballot box with light and miraculously translate into positive results. If that doesn?t relieve your anxiety, then remember Mina?s sheepish and defeated little grin - and it?s sure to make you laugh.